Primeira Liga · 2024/25
2025-04-26 · 20:30
16.2715.0%
X4.0523.2%
21.5261.8%
Average market odds. Implied probabilities are normalized to remove the market margin.
Quick read
Match snapshot
Home vs Away · Last 10
Form
Estrela
WWWLLLDDLL
3W 2D 5L · 1.10 PPM
Porto
DWLLDWWLWW
5W 2D 3L · 1.70 PPM
Goals
1.00
Scored
1.30
1.40
Conceded
1.00
40%
Over 2.5
40%
40%
BTTS
40%
By half
0.90
1H goals
1.10
1.50
2H goals
1.20
80%
Goal in 2H
70%
Corners
4.30N=10
For
4.80N=10
4.90
Against
3.10
9.20
Total
7.90
Signals
Key historical patterns
strongAt least one second-half goal
8/10 home-side sample · 7/10 away-side sample.
Team history
Goals
N=10 N=10
1.00
Goals scored
1.30
1.40
Goals conceded
1.00
2.40
Total goals
2.30
Over 1.5
Over 2.5
Over 3.5
BTTS
Matchup
Estrela attack
1.00goals per matchPorto conceded1.00Matchup
Porto attack
1.30goals per matchEstrela conceded1.40Timing
First & second half
N=10 N=10
0.20
1H goals scored
0.40
0.70
1H goals conceded
0.70
Over 0.5 1H
Leading at HT
0.80
2H goals scored
0.90
0.70
2H goals conceded
0.30
Over 0.5 2H
More goals in 2H
Set pieces
Corners
N=10 N=10
4.30N=10
Corners for
4.80N=10
4.90
Corners against
3.10
9.20
Match total
7.90
Over 8.5
Over 9.5
Team over 4.5
Advanced
Cards, fouls & shots
Yellow cards
3.30N=10
For
3.40N=10
4.70
Match total
6.00
Over 3.5
Fouls
17.00N=10
Committed
13.30N=10
31.90
Match total
27.40
Shots
9.50N=10
Shots
13.30N=10
2.70
On target
4.10
11%
Conversion
10%
Market history
Similar historical matches
low · Tier A
Comparable matches60
Method1X2 + O/U + AH
WeightingNone
MarketHistoryΔ
Home15.0%11.7%-3.3 pp
Draw23.2%23.3%+0.1 pp
Away61.8%65.0%+3.2 pp
Comparable goal profile
Over 1.570.0%
Over 2.551.7%
Over 3.528.3%
BTTS38.3%
Historical average
0.63–1.95
Historical average score, not a predicted score.
Most common scores
0-115.0%
0-011.7%
0-311.7%
1-210.0%
0-210.0%
Comparable corner averages
3.15–5.47
Average total8.62
Home – away corner average · Corner sample N=60.
Comparable corner totals
Over 8.546.7%
Over 9.531.7%
Over 10.523.3%
Over 11.515.0%
What if?
If half-time is 0-0
Comparable matches19
Exact HT state0-0
Sample qualitylimited
Home FT10.5%2.9%–31.4% CI
Draw FT36.8%19.1%–59.0% CI
Away FT52.6%31.7%–72.7% CI
Remaining goals
1.11
Historical average second-half goals.
Second half
1+ goal63.2%
2+ goals31.6%
3+ goals15.8%
Who scores in 2H
Home15.8%
Away52.6%