Primeira Liga · 2024/25
2025-04-13 · 15:30
12.7234.5%
X3.0331.0%
22.7234.5%
Average market odds. Implied probabilities are normalized to remove the market margin.
Quick read
Match snapshot
Home vs Away · Last 10
Form
Estrela
DWWWLLLDDL
3W 3D 4L · 1.20 PPM
Farense
LDDWDDLDDL
1W 6D 3L · 0.90 PPM
Goals
1.20
Scored
1.10
1.50
Conceded
1.50
50%
Over 2.5
50%
50%
BTTS
70%
By half
1.10
1H goals
1.10
1.60
2H goals
1.50
80%
Goal in 2H
70%
Corners
3.90N=10
For
3.90N=10
5.00
Against
6.70
8.90
Total
10.60
Signals
Key historical patterns
strongAt least one second-half goal
8/10 home-side sample · 7/10 away-side sample.
Team history
Goals
N=10 N=10
1.20
Goals scored
1.10
1.50
Goals conceded
1.50
2.70
Total goals
2.60
Over 1.5
Over 2.5
Over 3.5
BTTS
Matchup
Estrela attack
1.20goals per matchFarense conceded1.50Matchup
Farense attack
1.10goals per matchEstrela conceded1.50Timing
First & second half
N=10 N=10
0.30
1H goals scored
0.50
0.80
1H goals conceded
0.60
Over 0.5 1H
Leading at HT
0.90
2H goals scored
0.60
0.70
2H goals conceded
0.90
Over 0.5 2H
More goals in 2H
Set pieces
Corners
N=10 N=10
3.90N=10
Corners for
3.90N=10
5.00
Corners against
6.70
8.90
Match total
10.60
Over 8.5
Over 9.5
Team over 4.5
Advanced
Cards, fouls & shots
Yellow cards
3.40N=10
For
2.80N=10
5.10
Match total
5.00
Over 3.5
Fouls
16.50N=10
Committed
14.80N=10
32.00
Match total
27.50
Shots
8.90N=10
Shots
8.60N=10
2.60
On target
3.60
13%
Conversion
13%
Market history
Similar historical matches
medium · Tier A
Comparable matches339
Method1X2 + O/U + AH
WeightingNone
MarketHistoryΔ
Home34.5%30.1%-4.4 pp
Draw31.0%37.2%+6.2 pp
Away34.5%32.7%-1.8 pp
Comparable goal profile
Over 1.563.4%
Over 2.534.8%
Over 3.517.1%
BTTS47.8%
Historical average
0.99–1.09
Historical average score, not a predicted score.
Most common scores
1-116.8%
0-015.3%
1-010.9%
0-110.3%
2-17.7%
Comparable corner averages
4.57–4.34
Average total8.91
Home – away corner average · Corner sample N=339.
Comparable corner totals
Over 8.552.2%
Over 9.543.1%
Over 10.530.1%
Over 11.519.8%
What if?
If half-time is 0-0
Comparable matches138
Exact HT state0-0
Sample qualitylimited
Home FT24.6%18.2%–32.4% CI
Draw FT49.3%41.1%–57.5% CI
Away FT26.1%19.5%–34.0% CI
Remaining goals
1.03
Historical average second-half goals.
Second half
1+ goal62.3%
2+ goals29.0%
3+ goals7.2%
Who scores in 2H
Home42.8%
Away38.4%