Primeira Liga · 2024/25
2025-04-13 · 15:30
12.7234.5%
X3.0331.0%
22.7234.5%

Average market odds. Implied probabilities are normalized to remove the market margin.

Sample
Context
Past seasons
Quick read

Match snapshot

Home vs Away · Last 10

Form

Estrela
DWWWLLLDDL
3W 3D 4L · 1.20 PPM
Farense
LDDWDDLDDL
1W 6D 3L · 0.90 PPM

Goals

1.20
Scored
1.10
1.50
Conceded
1.50
50%
Over 2.5
50%
50%
BTTS
70%

By half

1.10
1H goals
1.10
1.60
2H goals
1.50
80%
Goal in 2H
70%

Corners

3.90N=10
For
3.90N=10
5.00
Against
6.70
8.90
Total
10.60
Signals

Key historical patterns

strongAt least one second-half goal

8/10 home-side sample · 7/10 away-side sample.

Team history

Goals

N=10 N=10
1.20
Goals scored
1.10
1.50
Goals conceded
1.50
2.70
Total goals
2.60
70%7/10
Over 1.5
80%8/10
50%5/10
Over 2.5
50%5/10
30%3/10
Over 3.5
40%4/10
50%5/10
BTTS
70%7/10
Matchup

Estrela attack

1.20goals per match
Farense conceded1.50
Matchup

Farense attack

1.10goals per match
Estrela conceded1.50
Timing

First & second half

N=10 N=10
0.30
1H goals scored
0.50
0.80
1H goals conceded
0.60
50%5/10
Over 0.5 1H
60%6/10
10%1/10
Leading at HT
20%2/10
0.90
2H goals scored
0.60
0.70
2H goals conceded
0.90
80%8/10
Over 0.5 2H
70%7/10
50%5/10
More goals in 2H
40%4/10
Set pieces

Corners

N=10 N=10
3.90N=10
Corners for
3.90N=10
5.00
Corners against
6.70
8.90
Match total
10.60
50%5/10
Over 8.5
90%9/10
30%3/10
Over 9.5
60%6/10
40%4/10
Team over 4.5
20%2/10
Advanced

Cards, fouls & shots

Yellow cards

3.40N=10
For
2.80N=10
5.10
Match total
5.00
80%8/10
Over 3.5
60%6/10

Fouls

16.50N=10
Committed
14.80N=10
32.00
Match total
27.50

Shots

8.90N=10
Shots
8.60N=10
2.60
On target
3.60
13%
Conversion
13%
Historical scope
History
Market history

Similar historical matches

medium · Tier A
Comparable matches339
Method1X2 + O/U + AH
WeightingNone
MarketHistoryΔ
Home34.5%30.1%-4.4 pp
Draw31.0%37.2%+6.2 pp
Away34.5%32.7%-1.8 pp

Comparable goal profile

Over 1.563.4%
Over 2.534.8%
Over 3.517.1%
BTTS47.8%

Historical average

0.991.09

Historical average score, not a predicted score.

Most common scores

1-116.8%
0-015.3%
1-010.9%
0-110.3%
2-17.7%

Comparable corner averages

4.574.34
Average total8.91

Home – away corner average · Corner sample N=339.

Comparable corner totals

Over 8.552.2%
Over 9.543.1%
Over 10.530.1%
Over 11.519.8%
Half-time score
What if?

If half-time is 0-0

Comparable matches138
Exact HT state0-0
Sample qualitylimited
Home FT24.6%18.2%–32.4% CI
Draw FT49.3%41.1%–57.5% CI
Away FT26.1%19.5%–34.0% CI

Remaining goals

1.03

Historical average second-half goals.

Second half

1+ goal62.3%
2+ goals29.0%
3+ goals7.2%

Who scores in 2H

Home42.8%
Away38.4%