Primeira Liga · 2024/25
2025-04-12 · 20:30
15.1518.2%
X3.6725.6%
21.6756.2%

Average market odds. Implied probabilities are normalized to remove the market margin.

Sample
Context
Past seasons
Quick read

Match snapshot

Home vs Away · Last 10

Form

Casa Pia
WDDWDWWWLW
6W 3D 1L · 2.10 PPM
Porto
LDWLLDWWLW
4W 2D 4L · 1.40 PPM

Goals

1.50
Scored
1.30
0.90
Conceded
1.40
40%
Over 2.5
50%
70%
BTTS
50%

By half

1.60
1H goals
1.20
0.80
2H goals
1.50
60%
Goal in 2H
80%

Corners

4.50N=10
For
4.70N=10
4.70
Against
2.90
9.20
Total
7.60
Signals

Key historical patterns

moderateAt least one second-half goal

6/10 home-side sample · 8/10 away-side sample.

Team history

Goals

N=10 N=10
1.50
Goals scored
1.30
0.90
Goals conceded
1.40
2.40
Total goals
2.70
70%7/10
Over 1.5
80%8/10
40%4/10
Over 2.5
50%5/10
30%3/10
Over 3.5
30%3/10
70%7/10
BTTS
50%5/10
Matchup

Casa Pia attack

1.50goals per match
Porto conceded1.40
Matchup

Porto attack

1.30goals per match
Casa Pia conceded0.90
Timing

First & second half

N=10 N=10
1.00
1H goals scored
0.40
0.60
1H goals conceded
0.80
90%9/10
Over 0.5 1H
90%9/10
40%4/10
Leading at HT
20%2/10
0.50
2H goals scored
0.90
0.30
2H goals conceded
0.60
60%6/10
Over 0.5 2H
80%8/10
10%1/10
More goals in 2H
50%5/10
Set pieces

Corners

N=10 N=10
4.50N=10
Corners for
4.70N=10
4.70
Corners against
2.90
9.20
Match total
7.60
50%5/10
Over 8.5
30%3/10
40%4/10
Over 9.5
30%3/10
50%5/10
Team over 4.5
50%5/10
Advanced

Cards, fouls & shots

Yellow cards

2.80N=10
For
3.80N=10
5.40
Match total
6.40
80%8/10
Over 3.5
100%10/10

Fouls

13.40N=10
Committed
13.00N=10
25.20
Match total
26.90

Shots

10.80N=10
Shots
13.10N=10
3.50
On target
4.10
14%
Conversion
10%
Historical scope
History
Market history

Similar historical matches

low · Tier A
Comparable matches108
Method1X2 + O/U + AH
WeightingNone
MarketHistoryΔ
Home18.2%14.8%-3.4 pp
Draw25.6%28.7%+3.1 pp
Away56.2%56.5%+0.3 pp

Comparable goal profile

Over 1.570.4%
Over 2.540.7%
Over 3.523.1%
BTTS47.2%

Historical average

0.791.56

Historical average score, not a predicted score.

Most common scores

0-115.7%
0-213.9%
1-112.0%
1-210.2%
0-09.3%

Comparable corner averages

3.695.64
Average total9.32

Home – away corner average · Corner sample N=108.

Comparable corner totals

Over 8.559.3%
Over 9.546.3%
Over 10.538.0%
Over 11.529.6%
Half-time score
What if?

If half-time is 0-0

Comparable matches37
Exact HT state0-0
Sample qualitylimited
Home FT13.5%5.9%–28.0% CI
Draw FT37.8%24.1%–53.9% CI
Away FT48.6%33.4%–64.1% CI

Remaining goals

1.32

Historical average second-half goals.

Second half

1+ goal73.0%
2+ goals40.5%
3+ goals16.2%

Who scores in 2H

Home29.7%
Away64.9%