Primeira Liga · 2024/25
2025-03-16 · 20:30
11.4565.0%
X4.1322.8%
27.7212.2%

Average market odds. Implied probabilities are normalized to remove the market margin.

Sample
Context
Past seasons
Quick read

Match snapshot

Home vs Away · Last 10

Form

Guimaraes
LDWWDDDWDW
4W 5D 1L · 1.70 PPM
Estrela
LLLLLDDLWD
1W 3D 6L · 0.60 PPM

Goals

1.80
Scored
0.40
1.30
Conceded
1.50
60%
Over 2.5
20%
40%
BTTS
30%

By half

0.90
1H goals
1.10
2.20
2H goals
0.80
90%
Goal in 2H
60%

Corners

7.30N=10
For
4.30N=10
3.30
Against
5.70
10.60
Total
10.00
Signals

Key historical patterns

moderateAt least one second-half goal

9/10 home-side sample · 6/10 away-side sample.

moderateOver 8.5 corners

8/10 home-side sample · 6/10 away-side sample.

Team history

Goals

N=10 N=10
1.80
Goals scored
0.40
1.30
Goals conceded
1.50
3.10
Total goals
1.90
70%7/10
Over 1.5
50%5/10
60%6/10
Over 2.5
20%2/10
50%5/10
Over 3.5
10%1/10
40%4/10
BTTS
30%3/10
Matchup

Guimaraes attack

1.80goals per match
Estrela conceded1.50
Matchup

Estrela attack

0.40goals per match
Guimaraes conceded1.30
Timing

First & second half

N=10 N=10
0.60
1H goals scored
0.30
0.30
1H goals conceded
0.80
50%5/10
Over 0.5 1H
70%7/10
30%3/10
Leading at HT
20%2/10
1.20
2H goals scored
0.10
1.00
2H goals conceded
0.70
90%9/10
Over 0.5 2H
60%6/10
70%7/10
More goals in 2H
20%2/10
Set pieces

Corners

N=10 N=10
7.30N=10
Corners for
4.30N=10
3.30
Corners against
5.70
10.60
Match total
10.00
80%8/10
Over 8.5
60%6/10
70%7/10
Over 9.5
50%5/10
100%10/10
Team over 4.5
40%4/10
Advanced

Cards, fouls & shots

Yellow cards

2.40N=10
For
2.40N=10
5.40
Match total
4.30
70%7/10
Over 3.5
70%7/10

Fouls

13.50N=10
Committed
15.90N=10
28.20
Match total
32.70

Shots

14.30N=10
Shots
9.60N=10
4.60
On target
3.00
13%
Conversion
4%
Historical scope
History
Market history

Similar historical matches

low · Tier A
Comparable matches76
Method1X2 + O/U + AH
WeightingNone
MarketHistoryΔ
Home65.0%63.2%-1.8 pp
Draw22.8%28.9%+6.1 pp
Away12.2%7.9%-4.3 pp

Comparable goal profile

Over 1.567.1%
Over 2.535.5%
Over 3.523.7%
BTTS46.1%

Historical average

1.710.67

Historical average score, not a predicted score.

Most common scores

1-022.4%
1-115.8%
2-015.8%
0-07.9%
2-17.9%

Comparable corner averages

6.382.91
Average total9.29

Home – away corner average · Corner sample N=76.

Comparable corner totals

Over 8.560.5%
Over 9.546.1%
Over 10.532.9%
Over 11.521.1%
Half-time score
What if?

If half-time is 0-0

Comparable matches23
Exact HT state0-0
Sample qualitylimited
Home FT60.9%40.8%–77.8% CI
Draw FT34.8%18.8%–55.1% CI
Away FT4.3%0.8%–21.0% CI

Remaining goals

1.09

Historical average second-half goals.

Second half

1+ goal73.9%
2+ goals26.1%
3+ goals4.3%

Who scores in 2H

Home69.6%
Away13.0%