Primeira Liga · 2024/25
2025-03-16 · 15:30
11.9847.5%
X3.4027.7%
23.7924.8%
Average market odds. Implied probabilities are normalized to remove the market margin.
Quick read
Match snapshot
Home vs Away · Last 10
Form
Arouca
LDLLWDWDDL
2W 4D 4L · 1.00 PPM
Estoril
DLLDLWWWDL
3W 3D 4L · 1.20 PPM
Goals
0.80
Scored
1.60
1.40
Conceded
2.20
30%
Over 2.5
90%
50%
BTTS
70%
By half
0.60
1H goals
1.70
1.60
2H goals
2.10
100%
Goal in 2H
100%
Corners
6.00N=10
For
3.20N=10
5.00
Against
5.40
11.00
Total
8.60
Signals
Key historical patterns
very strongAt least one second-half goal
10/10 home-side sample · 10/10 away-side sample.
Team history
Goals
N=10 N=10
0.80
Goals scored
1.60
1.40
Goals conceded
2.20
2.20
Total goals
3.80
Over 1.5
Over 2.5
Over 3.5
BTTS
Matchup
Arouca attack
0.80goals per matchEstoril conceded2.20Matchup
Estoril attack
1.60goals per matchArouca conceded1.40Timing
First & second half
N=10 N=10
0.10
1H goals scored
0.70
0.50
1H goals conceded
1.00
Over 0.5 1H
Leading at HT
0.70
2H goals scored
0.90
0.90
2H goals conceded
1.20
Over 0.5 2H
More goals in 2H
Set pieces
Corners
N=10 N=10
6.00N=10
Corners for
3.20N=10
5.00
Corners against
5.40
11.00
Match total
8.60
Over 8.5
Over 9.5
Team over 4.5
Advanced
Cards, fouls & shots
Yellow cards
2.00N=10
For
2.10N=10
3.60
Match total
3.90
Over 3.5
Fouls
15.30N=10
Committed
13.50N=10
27.90
Match total
27.60
Shots
11.30N=10
Shots
10.40N=10
3.70
On target
3.80
7%
Conversion
15%
Market history
Similar historical matches
high · Tier A
Comparable matches1,020
Method1X2 + O/U + AH
WeightingNone
MarketHistoryΔ
Home47.5%47.1%-0.5 pp
Draw27.7%28.0%+0.4 pp
Away24.8%24.9%+0.1 pp
Comparable goal profile
Over 1.571.0%
Over 2.545.5%
Over 3.523.7%
BTTS50.7%
Historical average
1.48–1.01
Historical average score, not a predicted score.
Most common scores
1-112.9%
1-012.1%
2-09.6%
2-19.3%
0-08.5%
Comparable corner averages
5.53–4.26
Average total9.80
Home – away corner average · Corner sample N=1,020.
Comparable corner totals
Over 8.561.8%
Over 9.548.9%
Over 10.538.5%
Over 11.528.6%
What if?
If half-time is 0-0
Comparable matches349
Exact HT state0-0
Sample qualitystrong
Home FT40.4%35.4%–45.6% CI
Draw FT35.5%30.7%–40.7% CI
Away FT24.1%19.9%–28.8% CI
Remaining goals
1.33
Historical average second-half goals.
Second half
1+ goal75.1%
2+ goals37.5%
3+ goals15.2%
Who scores in 2H
Home54.7%
Away41.3%