Primeira Liga · 2024/25
2025-03-16 · 15:30
11.9847.5%
X3.4027.7%
23.7924.8%

Average market odds. Implied probabilities are normalized to remove the market margin.

Sample
Context
Past seasons
Quick read

Match snapshot

Home vs Away · Last 10

Form

Arouca
LDLLWDWDDL
2W 4D 4L · 1.00 PPM
Estoril
DLLDLWWWDL
3W 3D 4L · 1.20 PPM

Goals

0.80
Scored
1.60
1.40
Conceded
2.20
30%
Over 2.5
90%
50%
BTTS
70%

By half

0.60
1H goals
1.70
1.60
2H goals
2.10
100%
Goal in 2H
100%

Corners

6.00N=10
For
3.20N=10
5.00
Against
5.40
11.00
Total
8.60
Signals

Key historical patterns

very strongAt least one second-half goal

10/10 home-side sample · 10/10 away-side sample.

Team history

Goals

N=10 N=10
0.80
Goals scored
1.60
1.40
Goals conceded
2.20
2.20
Total goals
3.80
80%8/10
Over 1.5
90%9/10
30%3/10
Over 2.5
90%9/10
10%1/10
Over 3.5
70%7/10
50%5/10
BTTS
70%7/10
Matchup

Arouca attack

0.80goals per match
Estoril conceded2.20
Matchup

Estoril attack

1.60goals per match
Arouca conceded1.40
Timing

First & second half

N=10 N=10
0.10
1H goals scored
0.70
0.50
1H goals conceded
1.00
60%6/10
Over 0.5 1H
90%9/10
10%1/10
Leading at HT
20%2/10
0.70
2H goals scored
0.90
0.90
2H goals conceded
1.20
100%10/10
Over 0.5 2H
100%10/10
70%7/10
More goals in 2H
40%4/10
Set pieces

Corners

N=10 N=10
6.00N=10
Corners for
3.20N=10
5.00
Corners against
5.40
11.00
Match total
8.60
90%9/10
Over 8.5
50%5/10
70%7/10
Over 9.5
40%4/10
70%7/10
Team over 4.5
20%2/10
Advanced

Cards, fouls & shots

Yellow cards

2.00N=10
For
2.10N=10
3.60
Match total
3.90
60%6/10
Over 3.5
50%5/10

Fouls

15.30N=10
Committed
13.50N=10
27.90
Match total
27.60

Shots

11.30N=10
Shots
10.40N=10
3.70
On target
3.80
7%
Conversion
15%
Historical scope
History
Market history

Similar historical matches

high · Tier A
Comparable matches1,020
Method1X2 + O/U + AH
WeightingNone
MarketHistoryΔ
Home47.5%47.1%-0.5 pp
Draw27.7%28.0%+0.4 pp
Away24.8%24.9%+0.1 pp

Comparable goal profile

Over 1.571.0%
Over 2.545.5%
Over 3.523.7%
BTTS50.7%

Historical average

1.481.01

Historical average score, not a predicted score.

Most common scores

1-112.9%
1-012.1%
2-09.6%
2-19.3%
0-08.5%

Comparable corner averages

5.534.26
Average total9.80

Home – away corner average · Corner sample N=1,020.

Comparable corner totals

Over 8.561.8%
Over 9.548.9%
Over 10.538.5%
Over 11.528.6%
Half-time score
What if?

If half-time is 0-0

Comparable matches349
Exact HT state0-0
Sample qualitystrong
Home FT40.4%35.4%–45.6% CI
Draw FT35.5%30.7%–40.7% CI
Away FT24.1%19.9%–28.8% CI

Remaining goals

1.33

Historical average second-half goals.

Second half

1+ goal75.1%
2+ goals37.5%
3+ goals15.2%

Who scores in 2H

Home54.7%
Away41.3%