Primeira Liga · 2023/24
2024-05-18 · 18:00
11.0788.8%
X12.557.6%
225.823.7%
Average market odds. Implied probabilities are normalized to remove the market margin.
Quick read
Match snapshot
Home vs Away · Last 10
Form
Sp Lisbon
WWWWWWWWWW
10W 0D 0L · 3.00 PPM
Chaves
LLDDLDDLWL
1W 4D 5L · 0.70 PPM
Goals
4.00
Scored
0.60
0.60
Conceded
1.40
90%
Over 2.5
30%
50%
BTTS
40%
By half
2.20
1H goals
0.80
2.40
2H goals
1.20
100%
Goal in 2H
70%
Corners
7.50N=10
For
4.10N=10
3.50
Against
8.00
11.00
Total
12.10
Signals
Key historical patterns
strongAt least one second-half goal
10/10 home-side sample · 7/10 away-side sample.
very strongOver 8.5 corners
8/10 home-side sample · 10/10 away-side sample.
Team history
Goals
N=10 N=10
4.00
Goals scored
0.60
0.60
Goals conceded
1.40
4.60
Total goals
2.00
Over 1.5
Over 2.5
Over 3.5
BTTS
Matchup
Sp Lisbon attack
4.00goals per matchChaves conceded1.40Matchup
Chaves attack
0.60goals per matchSp Lisbon conceded0.60Timing
First & second half
N=10 N=10
1.80
1H goals scored
0.30
0.40
1H goals conceded
0.50
Over 0.5 1H
Leading at HT
2.20
2H goals scored
0.30
0.20
2H goals conceded
0.90
Over 0.5 2H
More goals in 2H
Set pieces
Corners
N=10 N=10
7.50N=10
Corners for
4.10N=10
3.50
Corners against
8.00
11.00
Match total
12.10
Over 8.5
Over 9.5
Team over 4.5
Advanced
Cards, fouls & shots
Yellow cards
2.00N=10
For
3.50N=10
4.50
Match total
6.20
Over 3.5
Fouls
10.90N=10
Committed
12.80N=10
22.40
Match total
27.30
Shots
16.10N=10
Shots
7.80N=10
7.10
On target
2.60
25%
Conversion
8%
Market history
Similar historical matches
low · Tier A
Comparable matches24
Method1X2 + O/U + AH
WeightingNone
MarketHistoryΔ
Home88.8%91.7%+2.9 pp
Draw7.6%4.2%-3.4 pp
Away3.7%4.2%+0.5 pp
Comparable goal profile
Over 1.591.7%
Over 2.575.0%
Over 3.558.3%
BTTS33.3%
Historical average
3.92–0.54
Historical average score, not a predicted score.
Most common scores
3-012.5%
2-012.5%
5-012.5%
4-08.3%
6-18.3%
Comparable corner averages
8.92–1.75
Average total10.67
Home – away corner average · Corner sample N=24.
Comparable corner totals
Over 8.570.8%
Over 9.558.3%
Over 10.554.2%
Over 11.541.7%
What if?
If half-time is 0-0
Comparable matches19
Exact HT state0-0
Sample qualitylimited
Home FT78.9%56.7%–91.5% CI
Draw FT10.5%2.9%–31.4% CI
Away FT10.5%2.9%–31.4% CI
Remaining goals
2.63
Historical average second-half goals.
Second half
1+ goal89.5%
2+ goals63.2%
3+ goals47.4%
Who scores in 2H
Home84.2%
Away26.3%