Primeira Liga · 2023/24
2024-05-12 · 18:00
12.6136.2%
X3.0630.9%
22.8732.9%
Average market odds. Implied probabilities are normalized to remove the market margin.
Quick read
Match snapshot
Home vs Away · Last 10
Form
Casa Pia
LLLDWDLDLW
2W 3D 5L · 0.90 PPM
Moreirense
DDWLLWLLLW
3W 2D 5L · 1.10 PPM
Goals
0.70
Scored
0.70
1.20
Conceded
1.30
40%
Over 2.5
30%
40%
BTTS
20%
By half
0.60
1H goals
0.80
1.30
2H goals
1.20
70%
Goal in 2H
70%
Corners
4.80N=10
For
3.60N=10
5.00
Against
5.20
9.80
Total
8.80
Signals
Key historical patterns
strongAt least one second-half goal
7/10 home-side sample · 7/10 away-side sample.
Team history
Goals
N=10 N=10
0.70
Goals scored
0.70
1.20
Goals conceded
1.30
1.90
Total goals
2.00
Over 1.5
Over 2.5
Over 3.5
BTTS
Matchup
Casa Pia attack
0.70goals per matchMoreirense conceded1.30Matchup
Moreirense attack
0.70goals per matchCasa Pia conceded1.20Timing
First & second half
N=10 N=10
0.20
1H goals scored
0.30
0.40
1H goals conceded
0.50
Over 0.5 1H
Leading at HT
0.50
2H goals scored
0.40
0.80
2H goals conceded
0.80
Over 0.5 2H
More goals in 2H
Set pieces
Corners
N=10 N=10
4.80N=10
Corners for
3.60N=10
5.00
Corners against
5.20
9.80
Match total
8.80
Over 8.5
Over 9.5
Team over 4.5
Advanced
Cards, fouls & shots
Yellow cards
1.20N=10
For
2.00N=10
2.80
Match total
4.60
Over 3.5
Fouls
11.10N=10
Committed
13.60N=10
22.20
Match total
27.50
Shots
10.20N=10
Shots
9.50N=10
3.20
On target
3.10
7%
Conversion
7%
Market history
Similar historical matches
high · Tier A
Comparable matches677
Method1X2 + O/U + AH
WeightingNone
MarketHistoryΔ
Home36.2%33.8%-2.4 pp
Draw30.9%36.8%+5.9 pp
Away32.9%29.4%-3.5 pp
Comparable goal profile
Over 1.563.8%
Over 2.535.5%
Over 3.516.7%
BTTS47.7%
Historical average
1.10–1.03
Historical average score, not a predicted score.
Most common scores
1-118.2%
1-013.1%
0-013.0%
0-110.0%
2-17.7%
Comparable corner averages
4.81–4.53
Average total9.34
Home – away corner average · Corner sample N=677.
Comparable corner totals
Over 8.557.3%
Over 9.546.5%
Over 10.535.6%
Over 11.525.7%
What if?
If half-time is 0-0
Comparable matches247
Exact HT state0-0
Sample qualitymoderate
Home FT29.6%24.2%–35.5% CI
Draw FT49.0%42.8%–55.2% CI
Away FT21.5%16.8%–27.0% CI
Remaining goals
1.09
Historical average second-half goals.
Second half
1+ goal64.4%
2+ goals31.2%
3+ goals10.9%
Who scores in 2H
Home47.0%
Away38.9%