Primeira Liga · 2023/24
2024-05-12 · 18:00
11.2476.0%
X6.5214.5%
29.899.5%

Average market odds. Implied probabilities are normalized to remove the market margin.

Sample
Context
Past seasons
Quick read

Match snapshot

Home vs Away · Last 10

Form

Benfica
WWWWWWWWWW
10W 0D 0L · 3.00 PPM
Arouca
WLWWLWLWDD
5W 2D 3L · 1.70 PPM

Goals

3.20
Scored
2.00
0.40
Conceded
1.10
80%
Over 2.5
70%
40%
BTTS
70%

By half

1.60
1H goals
1.30
2.00
2H goals
1.80
100%
Goal in 2H
80%

Corners

7.20N=10
For
4.30N=10
2.80
Against
4.70
10.00
Total
9.00
Signals

Key historical patterns

strongOver 2.5 goals

8/10 home-side sample · 7/10 away-side sample.

very strongAt least one second-half goal

10/10 home-side sample · 8/10 away-side sample.

Team history

Goals

N=10 N=10
3.20
Goals scored
2.00
0.40
Goals conceded
1.10
3.60
Total goals
3.10
90%9/10
Over 1.5
80%8/10
80%8/10
Over 2.5
70%7/10
50%5/10
Over 3.5
30%3/10
40%4/10
BTTS
70%7/10
Matchup

Benfica attack

3.20goals per match
Arouca conceded1.10
Matchup

Arouca attack

2.00goals per match
Benfica conceded0.40
Timing

First & second half

N=10 N=10
1.30
1H goals scored
0.70
0.30
1H goals conceded
0.60
70%7/10
Over 0.5 1H
70%7/10
50%5/10
Leading at HT
30%3/10
1.90
2H goals scored
1.30
0.10
2H goals conceded
0.50
100%10/10
Over 0.5 2H
80%8/10
60%6/10
More goals in 2H
40%4/10
Set pieces

Corners

N=10 N=10
7.20N=10
Corners for
4.30N=10
2.80
Corners against
4.70
10.00
Match total
9.00
70%7/10
Over 8.5
40%4/10
50%5/10
Over 9.5
40%4/10
100%10/10
Team over 4.5
50%5/10
Advanced

Cards, fouls & shots

Yellow cards

1.10N=10
For
2.00N=10
3.80
Match total
3.60
60%6/10
Over 3.5
50%5/10

Fouls

13.20N=10
Committed
11.50N=10
23.00
Match total
22.60

Shots

16.70N=10
Shots
12.30N=10
8.00
On target
4.50
19%
Conversion
16%
Historical scope
History
Market history

Similar historical matches

low · Tier A
Comparable matches75
Method1X2 + O/U + AH
WeightingNone
MarketHistoryΔ
Home76.0%70.7%-5.3 pp
Draw14.5%21.3%+6.9 pp
Away9.5%8.0%-1.5 pp

Comparable goal profile

Over 1.582.7%
Over 2.570.7%
Over 3.548.0%
BTTS57.3%

Historical average

2.520.92

Historical average score, not a predicted score.

Most common scores

3-110.7%
2-110.7%
3-010.7%
1-08.0%
4-16.7%

Comparable corner averages

7.043.36
Average total10.40

Home – away corner average · Corner sample N=75.

Comparable corner totals

Over 8.565.3%
Over 9.557.3%
Over 10.548.0%
Over 11.536.0%
Half-time score
What if?

If half-time is 0-0

Comparable matches19
Exact HT state0-0
Sample qualitylimited
Home FT42.1%23.1%–63.7% CI
Draw FT36.8%19.1%–59.0% CI
Away FT21.1%8.5%–43.3% CI

Remaining goals

1.53

Historical average second-half goals.

Second half

1+ goal78.9%
2+ goals42.1%
3+ goals26.3%

Who scores in 2H

Home63.2%
Away52.6%