Primeira Liga · 2023/24
2024-05-12 · 18:00
11.2476.0%
X6.5214.5%
29.899.5%
Average market odds. Implied probabilities are normalized to remove the market margin.
Quick read
Match snapshot
Home vs Away · Last 10
Form
Benfica
WWWWWWWWWW
10W 0D 0L · 3.00 PPM
Arouca
WLWWLWLWDD
5W 2D 3L · 1.70 PPM
Goals
3.20
Scored
2.00
0.40
Conceded
1.10
80%
Over 2.5
70%
40%
BTTS
70%
By half
1.60
1H goals
1.30
2.00
2H goals
1.80
100%
Goal in 2H
80%
Corners
7.20N=10
For
4.30N=10
2.80
Against
4.70
10.00
Total
9.00
Signals
Key historical patterns
strongOver 2.5 goals
8/10 home-side sample · 7/10 away-side sample.
very strongAt least one second-half goal
10/10 home-side sample · 8/10 away-side sample.
Team history
Goals
N=10 N=10
3.20
Goals scored
2.00
0.40
Goals conceded
1.10
3.60
Total goals
3.10
Over 1.5
Over 2.5
Over 3.5
BTTS
Matchup
Benfica attack
3.20goals per matchArouca conceded1.10Matchup
Arouca attack
2.00goals per matchBenfica conceded0.40Timing
First & second half
N=10 N=10
1.30
1H goals scored
0.70
0.30
1H goals conceded
0.60
Over 0.5 1H
Leading at HT
1.90
2H goals scored
1.30
0.10
2H goals conceded
0.50
Over 0.5 2H
More goals in 2H
Set pieces
Corners
N=10 N=10
7.20N=10
Corners for
4.30N=10
2.80
Corners against
4.70
10.00
Match total
9.00
Over 8.5
Over 9.5
Team over 4.5
Advanced
Cards, fouls & shots
Yellow cards
1.10N=10
For
2.00N=10
3.80
Match total
3.60
Over 3.5
Fouls
13.20N=10
Committed
11.50N=10
23.00
Match total
22.60
Shots
16.70N=10
Shots
12.30N=10
8.00
On target
4.50
19%
Conversion
16%
Market history
Similar historical matches
low · Tier A
Comparable matches75
Method1X2 + O/U + AH
WeightingNone
MarketHistoryΔ
Home76.0%70.7%-5.3 pp
Draw14.5%21.3%+6.9 pp
Away9.5%8.0%-1.5 pp
Comparable goal profile
Over 1.582.7%
Over 2.570.7%
Over 3.548.0%
BTTS57.3%
Historical average
2.52–0.92
Historical average score, not a predicted score.
Most common scores
3-110.7%
2-110.7%
3-010.7%
1-08.0%
4-16.7%
Comparable corner averages
7.04–3.36
Average total10.40
Home – away corner average · Corner sample N=75.
Comparable corner totals
Over 8.565.3%
Over 9.557.3%
Over 10.548.0%
Over 11.536.0%
What if?
If half-time is 0-0
Comparable matches19
Exact HT state0-0
Sample qualitylimited
Home FT42.1%23.1%–63.7% CI
Draw FT36.8%19.1%–59.0% CI
Away FT21.1%8.5%–43.3% CI
Remaining goals
1.53
Historical average second-half goals.
Second half
1+ goal78.9%
2+ goals42.1%
3+ goals26.3%
Who scores in 2H
Home63.2%
Away52.6%