Primeira Liga · 2023/24
2024-05-04 · 20:30
110.159.3%
X5.8416.2%
21.2774.5%

Average market odds. Implied probabilities are normalized to remove the market margin.

Sample
Context
Past seasons
Quick read

Match snapshot

Home vs Away · Last 10

Form

Chaves
WLLDDWLLLD
2W 3D 5L · 0.90 PPM
Porto
WWLDWLDWLW
5W 2D 3L · 1.70 PPM

Goals

1.20
Scored
1.70
2.10
Conceded
1.10
80%
Over 2.5
60%
80%
BTTS
60%

By half

1.60
1H goals
1.50
1.70
2H goals
1.30
90%
Goal in 2H
90%

Corners

4.40N=10
For
6.40N=10
3.80
Against
3.90
8.20
Total
10.30
Signals

Key historical patterns

moderateOver 2.5 goals

8/10 home-side sample · 6/10 away-side sample.

moderateBoth teams scored

8/10 home-side sample · 6/10 away-side sample.

very strongAt least one second-half goal

9/10 home-side sample · 9/10 away-side sample.

Team history

Goals

N=10 N=10
1.20
Goals scored
1.70
2.10
Goals conceded
1.10
3.30
Total goals
2.80
90%9/10
Over 1.5
90%9/10
80%8/10
Over 2.5
60%6/10
40%4/10
Over 3.5
20%2/10
80%8/10
BTTS
60%6/10
Matchup

Chaves attack

1.20goals per match
Porto conceded1.10
Matchup

Porto attack

1.70goals per match
Chaves conceded2.10
Timing

First & second half

N=10 N=10
0.70
1H goals scored
0.90
0.90
1H goals conceded
0.60
90%9/10
Over 0.5 1H
80%8/10
20%2/10
Leading at HT
30%3/10
0.50
2H goals scored
0.80
1.20
2H goals conceded
0.50
90%9/10
Over 0.5 2H
90%9/10
30%3/10
More goals in 2H
30%3/10
Set pieces

Corners

N=10 N=10
4.40N=10
Corners for
6.40N=10
3.80
Corners against
3.90
8.20
Match total
10.30
40%4/10
Over 8.5
70%7/10
30%3/10
Over 9.5
60%6/10
20%2/10
Team over 4.5
60%6/10
Advanced

Cards, fouls & shots

Yellow cards

2.50N=10
For
2.90N=10
4.70
Match total
6.20
60%6/10
Over 3.5
80%8/10

Fouls

14.80N=10
Committed
13.80N=10
29.20
Match total
31.90

Shots

10.30N=10
Shots
13.60N=10
3.80
On target
4.70
12%
Conversion
13%
Historical scope
History
Market history

Similar historical matches

low · Tier A
Comparable matches56
Method1X2 + O/U + AH
WeightingNone
MarketHistoryΔ
Home9.3%12.5%+3.2 pp
Draw16.2%14.3%-1.9 pp
Away74.5%73.2%-1.3 pp

Comparable goal profile

Over 1.576.8%
Over 2.558.9%
Over 3.532.1%
BTTS44.6%

Historical average

0.702.05

Historical average score, not a predicted score.

Most common scores

0-116.1%
1-214.3%
1-310.7%
0-28.9%
0-38.9%

Comparable corner averages

2.776.66
Average total9.43

Home – away corner average · Corner sample N=56.

Comparable corner totals

Over 8.558.9%
Over 9.542.9%
Over 10.532.1%
Over 11.523.2%
Half-time score
What if?

If half-time is 0-0

Comparable matches14
Exact HT state0-0
Sample qualitylimited
Home FT7.1%1.3%–31.5% CI
Draw FT21.4%7.6%–47.6% CI
Away FT71.4%45.4%–88.3% CI

Remaining goals

1.50

Historical average second-half goals.

Second half

1+ goal85.7%
2+ goals35.7%
3+ goals21.4%

Who scores in 2H

Home35.7%
Away78.6%