Primeira Liga · 2023/24
2024-05-04 · 15:30
12.7234.8%
X3.2928.7%
22.5936.5%
Average market odds. Implied probabilities are normalized to remove the market margin.
Quick read
Match snapshot
Home vs Away · Last 10
Form
Rio Ave
WDDWDWDDWD
4W 6D 0L · 1.80 PPM
Guimaraes
WDDLWDWWWL
5W 3D 2L · 1.80 PPM
Goals
1.50
Scored
1.30
0.70
Conceded
1.10
20%
Over 2.5
50%
50%
BTTS
70%
By half
0.80
1H goals
1.30
1.40
2H goals
1.10
90%
Goal in 2H
90%
Corners
4.20N=10
For
5.80N=10
4.10
Against
5.30
8.30
Total
11.10
Signals
Key historical patterns
very strongAt least one second-half goal
9/10 home-side sample · 9/10 away-side sample.
Team history
Goals
N=10 N=10
1.50
Goals scored
1.30
0.70
Goals conceded
1.10
2.20
Total goals
2.40
Over 1.5
Over 2.5
Over 3.5
BTTS
Matchup
Rio Ave attack
1.50goals per matchGuimaraes conceded1.10Matchup
Guimaraes attack
1.30goals per matchRio Ave conceded0.70Timing
First & second half
N=10 N=10
0.60
1H goals scored
0.90
0.20
1H goals conceded
0.40
Over 0.5 1H
Leading at HT
0.90
2H goals scored
0.40
0.50
2H goals conceded
0.70
Over 0.5 2H
More goals in 2H
Set pieces
Corners
N=10 N=10
4.20N=10
Corners for
5.80N=10
4.10
Corners against
5.30
8.30
Match total
11.10
Over 8.5
Over 9.5
Team over 4.5
Advanced
Cards, fouls & shots
Yellow cards
2.80N=10
For
2.90N=10
5.70
Match total
5.50
Over 3.5
Fouls
14.40N=10
Committed
14.50N=10
27.60
Match total
26.10
Shots
9.50N=10
Shots
11.50N=10
3.80
On target
3.10
16%
Conversion
11%
Market history
Similar historical matches
high · Tier A
Comparable matches624
Method1X2 + O/U + AH
WeightingNone
MarketHistoryΔ
Home34.8%29.6%-5.1 pp
Draw28.7%33.3%+4.6 pp
Away36.5%37.0%+0.5 pp
Comparable goal profile
Over 1.572.0%
Over 2.544.9%
Over 3.522.9%
BTTS55.4%
Historical average
1.16–1.27
Historical average score, not a predicted score.
Most common scores
1-116.8%
0-111.1%
0-09.6%
1-29.0%
2-18.5%
Comparable corner averages
4.99–4.96
Average total9.94
Home – away corner average · Corner sample N=624.
Comparable corner totals
Over 8.565.4%
Over 9.554.0%
Over 10.540.5%
Over 11.529.6%
What if?
If half-time is 0-0
Comparable matches202
Exact HT state0-0
Sample qualitymoderate
Home FT23.3%18.0%–29.6% CI
Draw FT45.5%38.8%–52.4% CI
Away FT31.2%25.2%–37.9% CI
Remaining goals
1.22
Historical average second-half goals.
Second half
1+ goal70.3%
2+ goals36.1%
3+ goals13.4%
Who scores in 2H
Home43.6%
Away52.0%