Primeira Liga · 2023/24
2024-04-29 · 20:15
12.1543.9%
X3.3428.3%
23.4027.8%
Average market odds. Implied probabilities are normalized to remove the market margin.
Quick read
Match snapshot
Home vs Away · Last 10
Form
Estrela
LWLDLWDWLD
3W 3D 4L · 1.20 PPM
Farense
DLLWDLLLLD
1W 3D 6L · 0.60 PPM
Goals
1.60
Scored
1.10
1.70
Conceded
1.80
70%
Over 2.5
60%
80%
BTTS
80%
By half
1.50
1H goals
1.10
1.80
2H goals
1.80
70%
Goal in 2H
100%
Corners
5.00N=10
For
3.40N=10
4.90
Against
9.50
9.90
Total
12.90
Signals
Key historical patterns
moderateOver 2.5 goals
7/10 home-side sample · 6/10 away-side sample.
very strongBoth teams scored
8/10 home-side sample · 8/10 away-side sample.
strongAt least one second-half goal
7/10 home-side sample · 10/10 away-side sample.
strongOver 8.5 corners
7/10 home-side sample · 8/10 away-side sample.
Team history
Goals
N=10 N=10
1.60
Goals scored
1.10
1.70
Goals conceded
1.80
3.30
Total goals
2.90
Over 1.5
Over 2.5
Over 3.5
BTTS
Matchup
Estrela attack
1.60goals per matchFarense conceded1.80Matchup
Farense attack
1.10goals per matchEstrela conceded1.70Timing
First & second half
N=10 N=10
0.90
1H goals scored
0.60
0.60
1H goals conceded
0.50
Over 0.5 1H
Leading at HT
0.70
2H goals scored
0.50
1.10
2H goals conceded
1.30
Over 0.5 2H
More goals in 2H
Set pieces
Corners
N=10 N=10
5.00N=10
Corners for
3.40N=10
4.90
Corners against
9.50
9.90
Match total
12.90
Over 8.5
Over 9.5
Team over 4.5
Advanced
Cards, fouls & shots
Yellow cards
2.00N=10
For
2.90N=10
4.10
Match total
5.00
Over 3.5
Fouls
13.80N=10
Committed
12.90N=10
26.10
Match total
25.90
Shots
9.40N=10
Shots
9.30N=10
3.70
On target
4.40
17%
Conversion
12%
Market history
Similar historical matches
high · Tier A
Comparable matches936
Method1X2 + O/U + AH
WeightingNone
MarketHistoryΔ
Home43.9%43.7%-0.2 pp
Draw28.3%29.8%+1.5 pp
Away27.8%26.5%-1.3 pp
Comparable goal profile
Over 1.572.8%
Over 2.546.2%
Over 3.526.4%
BTTS54.2%
Historical average
1.46–1.12
Historical average score, not a predicted score.
Most common scores
1-115.4%
1-011.4%
2-19.0%
0-07.9%
0-17.9%
Comparable corner averages
5.60–4.39
Average total9.99
Home – away corner average · Corner sample N=936.
Comparable corner totals
Over 8.565.4%
Over 9.553.6%
Over 10.540.7%
Over 11.530.0%
What if?
If half-time is 0-0
Comparable matches302
Exact HT state0-0
Sample qualitystrong
Home FT34.4%29.3%–40.0% CI
Draw FT39.4%34.1%–45.0% CI
Away FT26.2%21.5%–31.4% CI
Remaining goals
1.33
Historical average second-half goals.
Second half
1+ goal75.5%
2+ goals37.7%
3+ goals13.6%
Who scores in 2H
Home55.6%
Away45.7%