Primeira Liga · 2023/24
2024-04-21 · 15:30
12.8233.5%
X3.3228.5%
22.4938.0%
Average market odds. Implied probabilities are normalized to remove the market margin.
Quick read
Match snapshot
Home vs Away · Last 10
Form
Chaves
LWLLDDWLLL
2W 2D 6L · 0.80 PPM
Estoril
LWLDLDLDLD
1W 4D 5L · 0.70 PPM
Goals
1.00
Scored
1.00
2.10
Conceded
1.90
70%
Over 2.5
50%
70%
BTTS
70%
By half
1.50
1H goals
1.40
1.60
2H goals
1.50
90%
Goal in 2H
70%
Corners
4.00N=10
For
5.10N=10
4.10
Against
4.90
8.10
Total
10.00
Signals
Key historical patterns
strongBoth teams scored
7/10 home-side sample · 7/10 away-side sample.
strongAt least one second-half goal
9/10 home-side sample · 7/10 away-side sample.
Team history
Goals
N=10 N=10
1.00
Goals scored
1.00
2.10
Goals conceded
1.90
3.10
Total goals
2.90
Over 1.5
Over 2.5
Over 3.5
BTTS
Matchup
Chaves attack
1.00goals per matchEstoril conceded1.90Matchup
Estoril attack
1.00goals per matchChaves conceded2.10Timing
First & second half
N=10 N=10
0.60
1H goals scored
0.30
0.90
1H goals conceded
1.10
Over 0.5 1H
Leading at HT
0.40
2H goals scored
0.70
1.20
2H goals conceded
0.80
Over 0.5 2H
More goals in 2H
Set pieces
Corners
N=10 N=10
4.00N=10
Corners for
5.10N=10
4.10
Corners against
4.90
8.10
Match total
10.00
Over 8.5
Over 9.5
Team over 4.5
Advanced
Cards, fouls & shots
Yellow cards
2.90N=10
For
2.70N=10
5.20
Match total
5.50
Over 3.5
Fouls
15.00N=10
Committed
11.80N=10
29.30
Match total
23.00
Shots
9.70N=10
Shots
11.30N=10
3.10
On target
3.60
10%
Conversion
9%
Market history
Similar historical matches
high · Tier A
Comparable matches534
Method1X2 + O/U + AH
WeightingNone
MarketHistoryΔ
Home33.5%30.3%-3.2 pp
Draw28.5%27.3%-1.1 pp
Away38.0%42.3%+4.3 pp
Comparable goal profile
Over 1.570.4%
Over 2.545.9%
Over 3.526.2%
BTTS51.7%
Historical average
1.16–1.38
Historical average score, not a predicted score.
Most common scores
1-113.1%
0-112.7%
1-08.8%
0-08.1%
2-17.1%
Comparable corner averages
4.99–5.05
Average total10.05
Home – away corner average · Corner sample N=534.
Comparable corner totals
Over 8.565.7%
Over 9.553.7%
Over 10.542.3%
Over 11.532.2%
What if?
If half-time is 0-0
Comparable matches176
Exact HT state0-0
Sample qualitymoderate
Home FT23.9%18.2%–30.7% CI
Draw FT36.9%30.2%–44.3% CI
Away FT39.2%32.3%–46.6% CI
Remaining goals
1.30
Historical average second-half goals.
Second half
1+ goal75.6%
2+ goals36.9%
3+ goals10.8%
Who scores in 2H
Home39.8%
Away56.3%