Primeira Liga · 2023/24
2024-04-14 · 15:30
12.5437.3%
X3.0531.0%
22.9931.7%

Average market odds. Implied probabilities are normalized to remove the market margin.

Sample
Context
Past seasons
Quick read

Match snapshot

Home vs Away · Last 10

Form

Estrela
WLWLDLWDWL
4W 2D 4L · 1.40 PPM
Rio Ave
DDLLDDLDDD
0W 7D 3L · 0.70 PPM

Goals

1.50
Scored
0.60
1.50
Conceded
1.10
60%
Over 2.5
30%
70%
BTTS
50%

By half

1.30
1H goals
0.70
1.70
2H goals
1.00
70%
Goal in 2H
60%

Corners

4.30N=10
For
3.70N=10
5.00
Against
6.90
9.30
Total
10.60
Signals

Key historical patterns

moderateAt least one second-half goal

7/10 home-side sample · 6/10 away-side sample.

Team history

Goals

N=10 N=10
1.50
Goals scored
0.60
1.50
Goals conceded
1.10
3.00
Total goals
1.70
80%8/10
Over 1.5
50%5/10
60%6/10
Over 2.5
30%3/10
40%4/10
Over 3.5
20%2/10
70%7/10
BTTS
50%5/10
Matchup

Estrela attack

1.50goals per match
Rio Ave conceded1.10
Matchup

Rio Ave attack

0.60goals per match
Estrela conceded1.50
Timing

First & second half

N=10 N=10
0.80
1H goals scored
0.40
0.50
1H goals conceded
0.30
60%6/10
Over 0.5 1H
40%4/10
30%3/10
Leading at HT
10%1/10
0.70
2H goals scored
0.20
1.00
2H goals conceded
0.80
70%7/10
Over 0.5 2H
60%6/10
50%5/10
More goals in 2H
30%3/10
Set pieces

Corners

N=10 N=10
4.30N=10
Corners for
3.70N=10
5.00
Corners against
6.90
9.30
Match total
10.60
60%6/10
Over 8.5
50%5/10
60%6/10
Over 9.5
50%5/10
40%4/10
Team over 4.5
40%4/10
Advanced

Cards, fouls & shots

Yellow cards

2.10N=10
For
3.20N=10
4.40
Match total
5.50
60%6/10
Over 3.5
70%7/10

Fouls

14.40N=10
Committed
15.30N=10
27.00
Match total
29.80

Shots

9.10N=10
Shots
8.90N=10
3.60
On target
3.30
16%
Conversion
7%
Historical scope
History
Market history

Similar historical matches

medium · Tier A
Comparable matches453
Method1X2 + O/U + AH
WeightingNone
MarketHistoryΔ
Home37.3%31.6%-5.7 pp
Draw31.0%36.9%+5.8 pp
Away31.7%31.6%-0.1 pp

Comparable goal profile

Over 1.563.6%
Over 2.533.8%
Over 3.515.9%
BTTS47.2%

Historical average

1.041.06

Historical average score, not a predicted score.

Most common scores

1-118.5%
0-013.5%
1-011.7%
0-111.3%
2-17.9%

Comparable corner averages

4.894.35
Average total9.25

Home – away corner average · Corner sample N=453.

Comparable corner totals

Over 8.557.0%
Over 9.547.0%
Over 10.534.4%
Over 11.524.1%
Half-time score
What if?

If half-time is 0-0

Comparable matches172
Exact HT state0-0
Sample qualitymoderate
Home FT27.9%21.7%–35.0% CI
Draw FT48.8%41.5%–56.3% CI
Away FT23.3%17.6%–30.1% CI

Remaining goals

1.12

Historical average second-half goals.

Second half

1+ goal64.5%
2+ goals35.5%
3+ goals10.5%

Who scores in 2H

Home45.9%
Away41.3%