Primeira Liga · 2023/24
2024-03-30 · 20:30
18.2611.5%
X5.2118.2%
21.3570.3%
Average market odds. Implied probabilities are normalized to remove the market margin.
Quick read
Match snapshot
Home vs Away · Last 10
Form
Estoril
LWWWLLWLLW
5W 0D 5L · 1.50 PPM
Porto
LWWWLDWLDW
5W 2D 3L · 1.70 PPM
Goals
1.80
Scored
1.70
1.20
Conceded
1.00
70%
Over 2.5
50%
40%
BTTS
50%
By half
1.30
1H goals
1.50
1.70
2H goals
1.20
90%
Goal in 2H
80%
Corners
5.50N=10
For
5.90N=10
4.90
Against
4.30
10.40
Total
10.20
Signals
Key historical patterns
very strongAt least one second-half goal
9/10 home-side sample · 8/10 away-side sample.
moderateOver 8.5 corners
8/10 home-side sample · 6/10 away-side sample.
Team history
Goals
N=10 N=10
1.80
Goals scored
1.70
1.20
Goals conceded
1.00
3.00
Total goals
2.70
Over 1.5
Over 2.5
Over 3.5
BTTS
Matchup
Estoril attack
1.80goals per matchPorto conceded1.00Matchup
Porto attack
1.70goals per matchEstoril conceded1.20Timing
First & second half
N=10 N=10
0.60
1H goals scored
1.00
0.70
1H goals conceded
0.50
Over 0.5 1H
Leading at HT
1.20
2H goals scored
0.70
0.50
2H goals conceded
0.50
Over 0.5 2H
More goals in 2H
Set pieces
Corners
N=10 N=10
5.50N=10
Corners for
5.90N=10
4.90
Corners against
4.30
10.40
Match total
10.20
Over 8.5
Over 9.5
Team over 4.5
Advanced
Cards, fouls & shots
Yellow cards
2.40N=10
For
2.90N=10
5.20
Match total
6.10
Over 3.5
Fouls
14.20N=10
Committed
13.60N=10
27.40
Match total
31.20
Shots
12.30N=10
Shots
12.60N=10
5.20
On target
4.60
15%
Conversion
13%
Market history
Similar historical matches
low · Tier A
Comparable matches93
Method1X2 + O/U + AH
WeightingNone
MarketHistoryΔ
Home11.5%11.8%+0.3 pp
Draw18.2%16.1%-2.1 pp
Away70.3%72.0%+1.7 pp
Comparable goal profile
Over 1.582.8%
Over 2.557.0%
Over 3.534.4%
BTTS49.5%
Historical average
0.82–2.23
Historical average score, not a predicted score.
Most common scores
0-216.1%
1-214.0%
1-18.6%
0-17.5%
0-37.5%
Comparable corner averages
3.18–6.96
Average total10.14
Home – away corner average · Corner sample N=93.
Comparable corner totals
Over 8.565.6%
Over 9.554.8%
Over 10.540.9%
Over 11.531.2%
What if?
If half-time is 0-0
Comparable matches20
Exact HT state0-0
Sample qualitylimited
Home FT10.0%2.8%–30.1% CI
Draw FT30.0%14.5%–51.9% CI
Away FT60.0%38.7%–78.1% CI
Remaining goals
1.35
Historical average second-half goals.
Second half
1+ goal80.0%
2+ goals45.0%
3+ goals10.0%
Who scores in 2H
Home25.0%
Away70.0%