Primeira Liga · 2023/24
2024-03-30 · 15:30
11.7853.3%
X3.7325.4%
24.4621.3%
Average market odds. Implied probabilities are normalized to remove the market margin.
Quick read
Match snapshot
Home vs Away · Last 10
Form
Arouca
LLLDWLWWWL
4W 1D 5L · 1.30 PPM
Farense
WWDLLWDLLL
3W 2D 5L · 1.10 PPM
Goals
1.60
Scored
1.60
1.60
Conceded
1.90
70%
Over 2.5
70%
30%
BTTS
80%
By half
1.50
1H goals
1.40
1.70
2H goals
2.10
80%
Goal in 2H
100%
Corners
3.40N=10
For
3.70N=10
4.10
Against
8.80
7.50
Total
12.50
Signals
Key historical patterns
strongOver 2.5 goals
7/10 home-side sample · 7/10 away-side sample.
very strongAt least one second-half goal
8/10 home-side sample · 10/10 away-side sample.
Team history
Goals
N=10 N=10
1.60
Goals scored
1.60
1.60
Goals conceded
1.90
3.20
Total goals
3.50
Over 1.5
Over 2.5
Over 3.5
BTTS
Matchup
Arouca attack
1.60goals per matchFarense conceded1.90Matchup
Farense attack
1.60goals per matchArouca conceded1.60Timing
First & second half
N=10 N=10
0.70
1H goals scored
0.80
0.80
1H goals conceded
0.60
Over 0.5 1H
Leading at HT
0.90
2H goals scored
0.80
0.80
2H goals conceded
1.30
Over 0.5 2H
More goals in 2H
Set pieces
Corners
N=10 N=10
3.40N=10
Corners for
3.70N=10
4.10
Corners against
8.80
7.50
Match total
12.50
Over 8.5
Over 9.5
Team over 4.5
Advanced
Cards, fouls & shots
Yellow cards
2.00N=10
For
2.60N=10
4.90
Match total
4.70
Over 3.5
Fouls
14.30N=10
Committed
12.50N=10
25.30
Match total
27.20
Shots
12.00N=10
Shots
9.90N=10
4.40
On target
4.80
13%
Conversion
16%
Market history
Similar historical matches
medium · Tier A
Comparable matches454
Method1X2 + O/U + AH
WeightingNone
MarketHistoryΔ
Home53.3%56.2%+2.9 pp
Draw25.4%25.6%+0.1 pp
Away21.3%18.3%-3.0 pp
Comparable goal profile
Over 1.574.9%
Over 2.551.1%
Over 3.528.6%
BTTS52.6%
Historical average
1.75–0.95
Historical average score, not a predicted score.
Most common scores
2-112.8%
1-011.9%
1-111.0%
2-010.1%
0-07.9%
Comparable corner averages
6.10–3.95
Average total10.05
Home – away corner average · Corner sample N=454.
Comparable corner totals
Over 8.566.5%
Over 9.552.9%
Over 10.540.5%
Over 11.531.5%
What if?
If half-time is 0-0
Comparable matches140
Exact HT state0-0
Sample qualitylimited
Home FT44.3%36.3%–52.6% CI
Draw FT39.3%31.6%–47.6% CI
Away FT16.4%11.2%–23.4% CI
Remaining goals
1.34
Historical average second-half goals.
Second half
1+ goal74.3%
2+ goals42.9%
3+ goals13.6%
Who scores in 2H
Home61.4%
Away39.3%