Primeira Liga · 2023/24
2024-03-30 · 15:30
11.7853.3%
X3.7325.4%
24.4621.3%

Average market odds. Implied probabilities are normalized to remove the market margin.

Sample
Context
Past seasons
Quick read

Match snapshot

Home vs Away · Last 10

Form

Arouca
LLLDWLWWWL
4W 1D 5L · 1.30 PPM
Farense
WWDLLWDLLL
3W 2D 5L · 1.10 PPM

Goals

1.60
Scored
1.60
1.60
Conceded
1.90
70%
Over 2.5
70%
30%
BTTS
80%

By half

1.50
1H goals
1.40
1.70
2H goals
2.10
80%
Goal in 2H
100%

Corners

3.40N=10
For
3.70N=10
4.10
Against
8.80
7.50
Total
12.50
Signals

Key historical patterns

strongOver 2.5 goals

7/10 home-side sample · 7/10 away-side sample.

very strongAt least one second-half goal

8/10 home-side sample · 10/10 away-side sample.

Team history

Goals

N=10 N=10
1.60
Goals scored
1.60
1.60
Goals conceded
1.90
3.20
Total goals
3.50
80%8/10
Over 1.5
90%9/10
70%7/10
Over 2.5
70%7/10
40%4/10
Over 3.5
50%5/10
30%3/10
BTTS
80%8/10
Matchup

Arouca attack

1.60goals per match
Farense conceded1.90
Matchup

Farense attack

1.60goals per match
Arouca conceded1.60
Timing

First & second half

N=10 N=10
0.70
1H goals scored
0.80
0.80
1H goals conceded
0.60
90%9/10
Over 0.5 1H
70%7/10
40%4/10
Leading at HT
40%4/10
0.90
2H goals scored
0.80
0.80
2H goals conceded
1.30
80%8/10
Over 0.5 2H
100%10/10
50%5/10
More goals in 2H
50%5/10
Set pieces

Corners

N=10 N=10
3.40N=10
Corners for
3.70N=10
4.10
Corners against
8.80
7.50
Match total
12.50
40%4/10
Over 8.5
80%8/10
40%4/10
Over 9.5
70%7/10
30%3/10
Team over 4.5
30%3/10
Advanced

Cards, fouls & shots

Yellow cards

2.00N=10
For
2.60N=10
4.90
Match total
4.70
70%7/10
Over 3.5
90%9/10

Fouls

14.30N=10
Committed
12.50N=10
25.30
Match total
27.20

Shots

12.00N=10
Shots
9.90N=10
4.40
On target
4.80
13%
Conversion
16%
Historical scope
History
Market history

Similar historical matches

medium · Tier A
Comparable matches454
Method1X2 + O/U + AH
WeightingNone
MarketHistoryΔ
Home53.3%56.2%+2.9 pp
Draw25.4%25.6%+0.1 pp
Away21.3%18.3%-3.0 pp

Comparable goal profile

Over 1.574.9%
Over 2.551.1%
Over 3.528.6%
BTTS52.6%

Historical average

1.750.95

Historical average score, not a predicted score.

Most common scores

2-112.8%
1-011.9%
1-111.0%
2-010.1%
0-07.9%

Comparable corner averages

6.103.95
Average total10.05

Home – away corner average · Corner sample N=454.

Comparable corner totals

Over 8.566.5%
Over 9.552.9%
Over 10.540.5%
Over 11.531.5%
Half-time score
What if?

If half-time is 0-0

Comparable matches140
Exact HT state0-0
Sample qualitylimited
Home FT44.3%36.3%–52.6% CI
Draw FT39.3%31.6%–47.6% CI
Away FT16.4%11.2%–23.4% CI

Remaining goals

1.34

Historical average second-half goals.

Second half

1+ goal74.3%
2+ goals42.9%
3+ goals13.6%

Who scores in 2H

Home61.4%
Away39.3%