Primeira Liga · 2023/24
2024-03-29 · 20:30
111.938.0%
X6.2315.3%
21.2476.7%

Average market odds. Implied probabilities are normalized to remove the market margin.

Sample
Context
Past seasons
Quick read

Match snapshot

Home vs Away · Last 10

Form

Estrela
LWLWLDLWDW
4W 2D 4L · 1.40 PPM
Sp Lisbon
WWLLWWWWDW
7W 1D 2L · 2.20 PPM

Goals

1.60
Scored
2.60
1.70
Conceded
1.30
60%
Over 2.5
80%
70%
BTTS
60%

By half

1.10
1H goals
1.70
2.20
2H goals
2.20
80%
Goal in 2H
90%

Corners

4.80N=10
For
5.80N=10
4.90
Against
2.40
9.70
Total
8.20
Signals

Key historical patterns

moderateOver 2.5 goals

6/10 home-side sample · 8/10 away-side sample.

moderateBoth teams scored

7/10 home-side sample · 6/10 away-side sample.

very strongAt least one second-half goal

8/10 home-side sample · 9/10 away-side sample.

Team history

Goals

N=10 N=10
1.60
Goals scored
2.60
1.70
Goals conceded
1.30
3.30
Total goals
3.90
80%8/10
Over 1.5
100%10/10
60%6/10
Over 2.5
80%8/10
50%5/10
Over 3.5
40%4/10
70%7/10
BTTS
60%6/10
Matchup

Estrela attack

1.60goals per match
Sp Lisbon conceded1.30
Matchup

Sp Lisbon attack

2.60goals per match
Estrela conceded1.70
Timing

First & second half

N=10 N=10
0.70
1H goals scored
1.20
0.40
1H goals conceded
0.50
60%6/10
Over 0.5 1H
90%9/10
30%3/10
Leading at HT
60%6/10
0.90
2H goals scored
1.40
1.30
2H goals conceded
0.80
80%8/10
Over 0.5 2H
90%9/10
60%6/10
More goals in 2H
60%6/10
Set pieces

Corners

N=10 N=10
4.80N=10
Corners for
5.80N=10
4.90
Corners against
2.40
9.70
Match total
8.20
60%6/10
Over 8.5
50%5/10
60%6/10
Over 9.5
40%4/10
50%5/10
Team over 4.5
70%7/10
Advanced

Cards, fouls & shots

Yellow cards

1.90N=10
For
2.40N=10
4.40
Match total
5.40
60%6/10
Over 3.5
70%7/10

Fouls

13.30N=10
Committed
11.50N=10
26.40
Match total
24.80

Shots

10.20N=10
Shots
14.40N=10
4.20
On target
6.70
16%
Conversion
18%
Historical scope
History
Market history

Similar historical matches

low · Tier A
Comparable matches46
Method1X2 + O/U + AH
WeightingNone
MarketHistoryΔ
Home8.0%4.3%-3.6 pp
Draw15.3%6.5%-8.8 pp
Away76.7%89.1%+12.4 pp

Comparable goal profile

Over 1.582.6%
Over 2.560.9%
Over 3.530.4%
BTTS34.8%

Historical average

0.542.43

Historical average score, not a predicted score.

Most common scores

0-317.4%
0-215.2%
0-115.2%
1-210.9%
1-36.5%

Comparable corner averages

2.487.54
Average total10.02

Home – away corner average · Corner sample N=46.

Comparable corner totals

Over 8.569.6%
Over 9.547.8%
Over 10.532.6%
Over 11.523.9%
Half-time score
What if?

If half-time is 0-0

Comparable matches14
Exact HT state0-0
Sample qualitylimited
Home FT7.1%1.3%–31.5% CI
Draw FT14.3%4.0%–39.9% CI
Away FT78.6%52.4%–92.4% CI

Remaining goals

1.86

Historical average second-half goals.

Second half

1+ goal92.9%
2+ goals50.0%
3+ goals28.6%

Who scores in 2H

Home28.6%
Away85.7%