Primeira Liga · 2022/23
2023-05-21 · 18:00
12.0945.2%
X3.3728.1%
23.5426.7%
Average market odds. Implied probabilities are normalized to remove the market margin.
Quick read
Match snapshot
Home vs Away · Last 10
Form
Casa Pia
LDLWDWWLLD
3W 3D 4L · 1.20 PPM
Estoril
LLLLLLLLLL
0W 0D 10L · 0.00 PPM
Goals
1.20
Scored
0.40
1.30
Conceded
2.00
50%
Over 2.5
30%
60%
BTTS
30%
By half
0.70
1H goals
1.10
1.80
2H goals
1.30
80%
Goal in 2H
80%
Corners
4.10N=10
For
4.80N=10
5.70
Against
6.30
9.80
Total
11.10
Signals
Key historical patterns
very strongAt least one second-half goal
8/10 home-side sample · 8/10 away-side sample.
moderateOver 8.5 corners
6/10 home-side sample · 9/10 away-side sample.
Team history
Goals
N=10 N=10
1.20
Goals scored
0.40
1.30
Goals conceded
2.00
2.50
Total goals
2.40
Over 1.5
Over 2.5
Over 3.5
BTTS
Matchup
Casa Pia attack
1.20goals per matchEstoril conceded2.00Matchup
Estoril attack
0.40goals per matchCasa Pia conceded1.30Timing
First & second half
N=10 N=10
0.40
1H goals scored
0.20
0.30
1H goals conceded
0.90
Over 0.5 1H
Leading at HT
0.80
2H goals scored
0.20
1.00
2H goals conceded
1.10
Over 0.5 2H
More goals in 2H
Set pieces
Corners
N=10 N=10
4.10N=10
Corners for
4.80N=10
5.70
Corners against
6.30
9.80
Match total
11.10
Over 8.5
Over 9.5
Team over 4.5
Advanced
Cards, fouls & shots
Yellow cards
3.00N=10
For
2.30N=10
4.20
Match total
5.30
Over 3.5
Fouls
14.00N=10
Committed
12.60N=10
27.30
Match total
30.20
Shots
11.60N=10
Shots
10.10N=10
3.70
On target
2.30
10%
Conversion
4%
Market history
Similar historical matches
high · Tier A
Comparable matches532
Method1X2 + O/U + AH
WeightingNone
MarketHistoryΔ
Home45.2%42.3%-2.9 pp
Draw28.1%30.8%+2.8 pp
Away26.7%26.9%+0.2 pp
Comparable goal profile
Over 1.573.7%
Over 2.546.2%
Over 3.525.6%
BTTS55.1%
Historical average
1.45–1.13
Historical average score, not a predicted score.
Most common scores
1-116.0%
1-010.3%
2-19.6%
0-08.3%
0-17.7%
Comparable corner averages
5.45–4.33
Average total9.79
Home – away corner average · Corner sample N=532.
Comparable corner totals
Over 8.564.3%
Over 9.551.5%
Over 10.540.4%
Over 11.529.1%
What if?
If half-time is 0-0
Comparable matches176
Exact HT state0-0
Sample qualitymoderate
Home FT35.2%28.6%–42.5% CI
Draw FT39.2%32.3%–46.6% CI
Away FT25.6%19.7%–32.5% CI
Remaining goals
1.27
Historical average second-half goals.
Second half
1+ goal75.0%
2+ goals37.5%
3+ goals11.9%
Who scores in 2H
Home54.5%
Away44.3%