Primeira Liga · 2022/23
2023-05-15 · 20:15
12.5537.1%
X3.1430.1%
22.8932.7%
Average market odds. Implied probabilities are normalized to remove the market margin.
Quick read
Match snapshot
Home vs Away · Last 10
Form
Estoril
LWLWLLLWLW
4W 0D 6L · 1.20 PPM
Arouca
WLDDLDWWDL
3W 4D 3L · 1.30 PPM
Goals
1.00
Scored
0.80
1.60
Conceded
1.10
50%
Over 2.5
10%
30%
BTTS
40%
By half
1.40
1H goals
0.90
1.20
2H goals
1.00
80%
Goal in 2H
70%
Corners
5.50N=10
For
2.80N=10
4.80
Against
7.40
10.30
Total
10.20
Signals
Key historical patterns
strongAt least one second-half goal
8/10 home-side sample · 7/10 away-side sample.
Team history
Goals
N=10 N=10
1.00
Goals scored
0.80
1.60
Goals conceded
1.10
2.60
Total goals
1.90
Over 1.5
Over 2.5
Over 3.5
BTTS
Matchup
Estoril attack
1.00goals per matchArouca conceded1.10Matchup
Arouca attack
0.80goals per matchEstoril conceded1.60Timing
First & second half
N=10 N=10
0.40
1H goals scored
0.30
1.00
1H goals conceded
0.60
Over 0.5 1H
Leading at HT
0.60
2H goals scored
0.50
0.60
2H goals conceded
0.50
Over 0.5 2H
More goals in 2H
Set pieces
Corners
N=10 N=10
5.50N=10
Corners for
2.80N=10
4.80
Corners against
7.40
10.30
Match total
10.20
Over 8.5
Over 9.5
Team over 4.5
Advanced
Cards, fouls & shots
Yellow cards
2.00N=10
For
2.70N=10
4.20
Match total
4.20
Over 3.5
Fouls
15.10N=10
Committed
13.10N=10
31.60
Match total
23.40
Shots
12.00N=10
Shots
9.90N=10
4.00
On target
3.00
8%
Conversion
8%
Market history
Similar historical matches
high · Tier A
Comparable matches649
Method1X2 + O/U + AH
WeightingNone
MarketHistoryΔ
Home37.1%33.0%-4.1 pp
Draw30.1%37.4%+7.3 pp
Away32.7%29.6%-3.2 pp
Comparable goal profile
Over 1.569.2%
Over 2.538.8%
Over 3.520.3%
BTTS52.9%
Historical average
1.17–1.12
Historical average score, not a predicted score.
Most common scores
1-119.7%
0-011.2%
1-010.8%
0-18.8%
2-18.0%
Comparable corner averages
5.15–4.63
Average total9.78
Home – away corner average · Corner sample N=648.
Comparable corner totals
Over 8.562.7%
Over 9.551.5%
Over 10.538.9%
Over 11.529.6%
What if?
If half-time is 0-0
Comparable matches225
Exact HT state0-0
Sample qualitymoderate
Home FT25.8%20.5%–31.9% CI
Draw FT52.0%45.5%–58.4% CI
Away FT22.2%17.3%–28.1% CI
Remaining goals
1.20
Historical average second-half goals.
Second half
1+ goal67.6%
2+ goals37.8%
3+ goals10.7%
Who scores in 2H
Home47.6%
Away45.3%