Primeira Liga · 2022/23
2023-05-15 · 20:15
12.5537.1%
X3.1430.1%
22.8932.7%

Average market odds. Implied probabilities are normalized to remove the market margin.

Sample
Context
Past seasons
Quick read

Match snapshot

Home vs Away · Last 10

Form

Estoril
LWLWLLLWLW
4W 0D 6L · 1.20 PPM
Arouca
WLDDLDWWDL
3W 4D 3L · 1.30 PPM

Goals

1.00
Scored
0.80
1.60
Conceded
1.10
50%
Over 2.5
10%
30%
BTTS
40%

By half

1.40
1H goals
0.90
1.20
2H goals
1.00
80%
Goal in 2H
70%

Corners

5.50N=10
For
2.80N=10
4.80
Against
7.40
10.30
Total
10.20
Signals

Key historical patterns

strongAt least one second-half goal

8/10 home-side sample · 7/10 away-side sample.

Team history

Goals

N=10 N=10
1.00
Goals scored
0.80
1.60
Goals conceded
1.10
2.60
Total goals
1.90
70%7/10
Over 1.5
60%6/10
50%5/10
Over 2.5
10%1/10
20%2/10
Over 3.5
10%1/10
30%3/10
BTTS
40%4/10
Matchup

Estoril attack

1.00goals per match
Arouca conceded1.10
Matchup

Arouca attack

0.80goals per match
Estoril conceded1.60
Timing

First & second half

N=10 N=10
0.40
1H goals scored
0.30
1.00
1H goals conceded
0.60
90%9/10
Over 0.5 1H
60%6/10
30%3/10
Leading at HT
20%2/10
0.60
2H goals scored
0.50
0.60
2H goals conceded
0.50
80%8/10
Over 0.5 2H
70%7/10
20%2/10
More goals in 2H
30%3/10
Set pieces

Corners

N=10 N=10
5.50N=10
Corners for
2.80N=10
4.80
Corners against
7.40
10.30
Match total
10.20
70%7/10
Over 8.5
40%4/10
60%6/10
Over 9.5
40%4/10
50%5/10
Team over 4.5
10%1/10
Advanced

Cards, fouls & shots

Yellow cards

2.00N=10
For
2.70N=10
4.20
Match total
4.20
60%6/10
Over 3.5
70%7/10

Fouls

15.10N=10
Committed
13.10N=10
31.60
Match total
23.40

Shots

12.00N=10
Shots
9.90N=10
4.00
On target
3.00
8%
Conversion
8%
Historical scope
History
Market history

Similar historical matches

high · Tier A
Comparable matches649
Method1X2 + O/U + AH
WeightingNone
MarketHistoryΔ
Home37.1%33.0%-4.1 pp
Draw30.1%37.4%+7.3 pp
Away32.7%29.6%-3.2 pp

Comparable goal profile

Over 1.569.2%
Over 2.538.8%
Over 3.520.3%
BTTS52.9%

Historical average

1.171.12

Historical average score, not a predicted score.

Most common scores

1-119.7%
0-011.2%
1-010.8%
0-18.8%
2-18.0%

Comparable corner averages

5.154.63
Average total9.78

Home – away corner average · Corner sample N=648.

Comparable corner totals

Over 8.562.7%
Over 9.551.5%
Over 10.538.9%
Over 11.529.6%
Half-time score
What if?

If half-time is 0-0

Comparable matches225
Exact HT state0-0
Sample qualitymoderate
Home FT25.8%20.5%–31.9% CI
Draw FT52.0%45.5%–58.4% CI
Away FT22.2%17.3%–28.1% CI

Remaining goals

1.20

Historical average second-half goals.

Second half

1+ goal67.6%
2+ goals37.8%
3+ goals10.7%

Who scores in 2H

Home47.6%
Away45.3%