Primeira Liga · 2022/23
2023-04-23 · 18:00
11.1085.8%
X9.2310.2%
224.073.9%
Average market odds. Implied probabilities are normalized to remove the market margin.
Quick read
Match snapshot
Home vs Away · Last 10
Form
Benfica
WWWWDWWWWL
8W 1D 1L · 2.50 PPM
Estoril
WDLLLLLLLL
1W 1D 8L · 0.40 PPM
Goals
2.90
Scored
0.60
0.90
Conceded
1.90
80%
Over 2.5
30%
60%
BTTS
40%
By half
2.10
1H goals
1.10
1.70
2H goals
1.40
90%
Goal in 2H
90%
Corners
7.40N=10
For
5.30N=10
2.80
Against
6.40
10.20
Total
11.70
Signals
Key historical patterns
very strongAt least one second-half goal
9/10 home-side sample · 9/10 away-side sample.
strongOver 8.5 corners
7/10 home-side sample · 9/10 away-side sample.
Team history
Goals
N=10 N=10
2.90
Goals scored
0.60
0.90
Goals conceded
1.90
3.80
Total goals
2.50
Over 1.5
Over 2.5
Over 3.5
BTTS
Matchup
Benfica attack
2.90goals per matchEstoril conceded1.90Matchup
Estoril attack
0.60goals per matchBenfica conceded0.90Timing
First & second half
N=10 N=10
1.70
1H goals scored
0.30
0.40
1H goals conceded
0.80
Over 0.5 1H
Leading at HT
1.20
2H goals scored
0.30
0.50
2H goals conceded
1.10
Over 0.5 2H
More goals in 2H
Set pieces
Corners
N=10 N=10
7.40N=10
Corners for
5.30N=10
2.80
Corners against
6.40
10.20
Match total
11.70
Over 8.5
Over 9.5
Team over 4.5
Advanced
Cards, fouls & shots
Yellow cards
1.20N=10
For
2.80N=10
4.10
Match total
6.30
Over 3.5
Fouls
12.20N=10
Committed
12.50N=10
25.00
Match total
31.40
Shots
18.00N=10
Shots
11.20N=10
7.30
On target
2.90
16%
Conversion
5%
Market history
Similar historical matches
low · Tier A
Comparable matches24
Method1X2 + O/U + AH
WeightingNone
MarketHistoryΔ
Home85.8%91.7%+5.8 pp
Draw10.2%4.2%-6.1 pp
Away3.9%4.2%+0.2 pp
Comparable goal profile
Over 1.579.2%
Over 2.554.2%
Over 3.550.0%
BTTS33.3%
Historical average
2.79–0.46
Historical average score, not a predicted score.
Most common scores
2-020.8%
1-016.7%
4-012.5%
5-012.5%
4-18.3%
Comparable corner averages
9.17–2.17
Average total11.33
Home – away corner average · Corner sample N=24.
Comparable corner totals
Over 8.583.3%
Over 9.566.7%
Over 10.545.8%
Over 11.541.7%
What if?
If half-time is 0-0
Comparable matches10
Exact HT state0-0
Sample qualitylimited
Home FT70.0%39.7%–89.2% CI
Draw FT10.0%1.8%–40.4% CI
Away FT20.0%5.7%–51.0% CI
Remaining goals
1.90
Historical average second-half goals.
Second half
1+ goal90.0%
2+ goals60.0%
3+ goals20.0%
Who scores in 2H
Home70.0%
Away30.0%