Primeira Liga · 2022/23
2023-03-18 · 20:30
12.1643.9%
X3.2729.0%
23.4927.2%
Average market odds. Implied probabilities are normalized to remove the market margin.
Quick read
Match snapshot
Home vs Away · Last 10
Form
Estoril
DLDLLWLWLL
2W 2D 6L · 0.80 PPM
Chaves
LLWLWDDLDL
2W 3D 5L · 0.90 PPM
Goals
0.90
Scored
0.60
2.00
Conceded
1.50
50%
Over 2.5
40%
50%
BTTS
40%
By half
1.60
1H goals
0.90
1.30
2H goals
1.20
70%
Goal in 2H
70%
Corners
4.60N=10
For
4.40N=10
5.70
Against
8.20
10.30
Total
12.60
Signals
Key historical patterns
strongAt least one second-half goal
7/10 home-side sample · 7/10 away-side sample.
strongOver 8.5 corners
7/10 home-side sample · 9/10 away-side sample.
Team history
Goals
N=10 N=10
0.90
Goals scored
0.60
2.00
Goals conceded
1.50
2.90
Total goals
2.10
Over 1.5
Over 2.5
Over 3.5
BTTS
Matchup
Estoril attack
0.90goals per matchChaves conceded1.50Matchup
Chaves attack
0.60goals per matchEstoril conceded2.00Timing
First & second half
N=10 N=10
0.30
1H goals scored
0.10
1.30
1H goals conceded
0.80
Over 0.5 1H
Leading at HT
0.60
2H goals scored
0.50
0.70
2H goals conceded
0.70
Over 0.5 2H
More goals in 2H
Set pieces
Corners
N=10 N=10
4.60N=10
Corners for
4.40N=10
5.70
Corners against
8.20
10.30
Match total
12.60
Over 8.5
Over 9.5
Team over 4.5
Advanced
Cards, fouls & shots
Yellow cards
2.80N=10
For
3.10N=10
5.30
Match total
6.70
Over 3.5
Fouls
14.70N=10
Committed
13.20N=10
31.10
Match total
28.90
Shots
11.10N=10
Shots
11.20N=10
3.90
On target
3.20
8%
Conversion
5%
Market history
Similar historical matches
high · Tier A
Comparable matches772
Method1X2 + O/U + AH
WeightingNone
MarketHistoryΔ
Home43.9%42.7%-1.1 pp
Draw29.0%31.1%+2.1 pp
Away27.2%26.2%-1.0 pp
Comparable goal profile
Over 1.570.6%
Over 2.543.7%
Over 3.522.9%
BTTS52.7%
Historical average
1.36–1.07
Historical average score, not a predicted score.
Most common scores
1-115.5%
1-012.6%
2-110.4%
0-08.7%
0-18.2%
Comparable corner averages
5.16–4.34
Average total9.50
Home – away corner average · Corner sample N=771.
Comparable corner totals
Over 8.559.8%
Over 9.548.0%
Over 10.534.9%
Over 11.525.4%
What if?
If half-time is 0-0
Comparable matches255
Exact HT state0-0
Sample qualitymoderate
Home FT38.0%32.3%–44.1% CI
Draw FT40.4%34.6%–46.5% CI
Away FT21.6%17.0%–27.0% CI
Remaining goals
1.31
Historical average second-half goals.
Second half
1+ goal73.7%
2+ goals38.0%
3+ goals12.9%
Who scores in 2H
Home54.5%
Away42.7%