Eredivisie · 2025/26
2026-04-11 · 20:00
15.1018.2%
X4.2721.7%
21.5460.1%

Average market odds. Implied probabilities are normalized to remove the market margin.

Sample
Context
Past seasons
Quick read

Match snapshot

Home vs Away · Last 10

Form

Heracles
WWDLLWLLDD
3W 3D 4L · 1.20 PPM
Ajax
WLWDWDDDLD
3W 5D 2L · 1.40 PPM

Goals

1.70
Scored
1.70
1.60
Conceded
1.60
50%
Over 2.5
70%
60%
BTTS
90%

By half

1.60
1H goals
1.30
1.70
2H goals
2.00
80%
Goal in 2H
90%

Corners

4.50N=10
For
3.60N=10
4.30
Against
5.40
8.80
Total
9.00
Signals

Key historical patterns

moderateBoth teams scored

6/10 home-side sample · 9/10 away-side sample.

very strongAt least one second-half goal

8/10 home-side sample · 9/10 away-side sample.

Team history

Goals

N=10 N=10
1.70
Goals scored
1.70
1.60
Goals conceded
1.60
3.30
Total goals
3.30
80%8/10
Over 1.5
90%9/10
50%5/10
Over 2.5
70%7/10
30%3/10
Over 3.5
60%6/10
60%6/10
BTTS
90%9/10
Matchup

Heracles attack

1.70goals per match
Ajax conceded1.60
Matchup

Ajax attack

1.70goals per match
Heracles conceded1.60
Timing

First & second half

N=10 N=10
0.80
1H goals scored
0.80
0.80
1H goals conceded
0.50
60%6/10
Over 0.5 1H
70%7/10
30%3/10
Leading at HT
30%3/10
0.90
2H goals scored
0.90
0.80
2H goals conceded
1.10
80%8/10
Over 0.5 2H
90%9/10
30%3/10
More goals in 2H
50%5/10
Set pieces

Corners

N=10 N=10
4.50N=10
Corners for
3.60N=10
4.30
Corners against
5.40
8.80
Match total
9.00
40%4/10
Over 8.5
40%4/10
20%2/10
Over 9.5
40%4/10
30%3/10
Team over 4.5
20%2/10
Advanced

Cards, fouls & shots

Yellow cards

1.40N=10
For
1.60N=10
3.40
Match total
3.30
40%4/10
Over 3.5
40%4/10

Fouls

13.50N=10
Committed
9.40N=10
26.80
Match total
20.20

Shots

14.20N=10
Shots
11.10N=10
5.30
On target
4.60
12%
Conversion
15%
Historical scope
History
Market history

Similar historical matches

low · Tier A
Comparable matches94
Method1X2 + O/U + AH
WeightingNone
MarketHistoryΔ
Home18.2%18.1%-0.1 pp
Draw21.7%24.5%+2.8 pp
Away60.1%57.4%-2.7 pp

Comparable goal profile

Over 1.579.8%
Over 2.555.3%
Over 3.530.9%
BTTS56.4%

Historical average

0.991.82

Historical average score, not a predicted score.

Most common scores

0-112.8%
0-210.6%
1-110.6%
1-29.6%
2-18.5%

Comparable corner averages

3.546.32
Average total9.86

Home – away corner average · Corner sample N=94.

Comparable corner totals

Over 8.566.0%
Over 9.553.2%
Over 10.540.4%
Over 11.527.7%
Half-time score
What if?

If half-time is 0-0

Comparable matches23
Exact HT state0-0
Sample qualitylimited
Home FT26.1%12.5%–46.5% CI
Draw FT30.4%15.6%–50.9% CI
Away FT43.5%25.6%–63.2% CI

Remaining goals

1.57

Historical average second-half goals.

Second half

1+ goal78.3%
2+ goals52.2%
3+ goals26.1%

Who scores in 2H

Home43.5%
Away65.2%