Eredivisie · 2025/26
2026-03-15 · 13:30
11.4166.2%
X4.7019.9%
26.6914.0%
Average market odds. Implied probabilities are normalized to remove the market margin.
Quick read
Match snapshot
Home vs Away · Last 10
Form
AZ Alkmaar
DWWLDWDLDW
4W 4D 2L · 1.60 PPM
Heracles
LLLWDLLLLL
1W 1D 8L · 0.40 PPM
Goals
1.80
Scored
1.10
1.70
Conceded
2.70
70%
Over 2.5
80%
90%
BTTS
70%
By half
1.80
1H goals
1.60
1.70
2H goals
2.20
90%
Goal in 2H
100%
Corners
5.60N=10
For
4.90N=10
3.80
Against
7.00
9.40
Total
11.90
Signals
Key historical patterns
strongOver 2.5 goals
7/10 home-side sample · 8/10 away-side sample.
strongBoth teams scored
9/10 home-side sample · 7/10 away-side sample.
very strongAt least one second-half goal
9/10 home-side sample · 10/10 away-side sample.
very strongOver 8.5 corners
8/10 home-side sample · 9/10 away-side sample.
Team history
Goals
N=10 N=10
1.80
Goals scored
1.10
1.70
Goals conceded
2.70
3.50
Total goals
3.80
Over 1.5
Over 2.5
Over 3.5
BTTS
Matchup
AZ Alkmaar attack
1.80goals per matchHeracles conceded2.70Matchup
Heracles attack
1.10goals per matchAZ Alkmaar conceded1.70Timing
First & second half
N=10 N=10
1.10
1H goals scored
0.50
0.70
1H goals conceded
1.10
Over 0.5 1H
Leading at HT
0.70
2H goals scored
0.60
1.00
2H goals conceded
1.60
Over 0.5 2H
More goals in 2H
Set pieces
Corners
N=10 N=10
5.60N=10
Corners for
4.90N=10
3.80
Corners against
7.00
9.40
Match total
11.90
Over 8.5
Over 9.5
Team over 4.5
Advanced
Cards, fouls & shots
Yellow cards
1.70N=10
For
2.80N=10
3.00
Match total
3.90
Over 3.5
Fouls
9.30N=10
Committed
14.30N=10
20.70
Match total
24.30
Shots
16.90N=10
Shots
9.10N=10
6.10
On target
3.20
11%
Conversion
12%
Market history
Similar historical matches
low · Tier A
Comparable matches251
Method1X2 + O/U + AH
WeightingNone
MarketHistoryΔ
Home66.2%67.3%+1.1 pp
Draw19.9%22.7%+2.9 pp
Away14.0%10.0%-4.0 pp
Comparable goal profile
Over 1.580.5%
Over 2.563.7%
Over 3.541.4%
BTTS53.4%
Historical average
2.38–0.88
Historical average score, not a predicted score.
Most common scores
2-110.4%
1-09.6%
3-08.0%
1-18.0%
2-07.2%
Comparable corner averages
6.50–3.51
Average total10.01
Home – away corner average · Corner sample N=250.
Comparable corner totals
Over 8.564.4%
Over 9.556.0%
Over 10.545.6%
Over 11.532.4%
What if?
If half-time is 0-0
Comparable matches54
Exact HT state0-0
Sample qualitylimited
Home FT44.4%32.0%–57.6% CI
Draw FT46.3%33.7%–59.4% CI
Away FT9.3%4.0%–19.9% CI
Remaining goals
1.31
Historical average second-half goals.
Second half
1+ goal66.7%
2+ goals40.7%
3+ goals14.8%
Who scores in 2H
Home61.1%
Away29.6%