Eredivisie · 2024/25
2025-05-11 · 15:45
11.3072.4%
X5.5117.1%
28.9410.5%
Average market odds. Implied probabilities are normalized to remove the market margin.
Quick read
Match snapshot
Home vs Away · Last 10
Form
Ajax
WDWWWWWDWD
7W 3D 0L · 2.40 PPM
Nijmegen
WLLWLLDWLL
3W 1D 6L · 1.00 PPM
Goals
2.30
Scored
0.70
0.80
Conceded
1.60
70%
Over 2.5
40%
60%
BTTS
20%
By half
1.40
1H goals
1.20
1.70
2H goals
1.10
100%
Goal in 2H
80%
Corners
6.80N=10
For
4.90N=10
2.70
Against
5.50
9.50
Total
10.40
Signals
Key historical patterns
very strongAt least one second-half goal
10/10 home-side sample · 8/10 away-side sample.
moderateOver 8.5 corners
6/10 home-side sample · 8/10 away-side sample.
Team history
Goals
N=10 N=10
2.30
Goals scored
0.70
0.80
Goals conceded
1.60
3.10
Total goals
2.30
Over 1.5
Over 2.5
Over 3.5
BTTS
Matchup
Ajax attack
2.30goals per matchNijmegen conceded1.60Matchup
Nijmegen attack
0.70goals per matchAjax conceded0.80Timing
First & second half
N=10 N=10
1.20
1H goals scored
0.20
0.20
1H goals conceded
1.00
Over 0.5 1H
Leading at HT
1.10
2H goals scored
0.50
0.60
2H goals conceded
0.60
Over 0.5 2H
More goals in 2H
Set pieces
Corners
N=10 N=10
6.80N=10
Corners for
4.90N=10
2.70
Corners against
5.50
9.50
Match total
10.40
Over 8.5
Over 9.5
Team over 4.5
Advanced
Cards, fouls & shots
Yellow cards
1.00N=10
For
2.30N=10
2.50
Match total
3.20
Over 3.5
Fouls
10.30N=10
Committed
11.20N=10
22.30
Match total
21.10
Shots
15.10N=10
Shots
11.40N=10
4.90
On target
3.50
15%
Conversion
6%
Market history
Similar historical matches
low · Tier A
Comparable matches168
Method1X2 + O/U + AH
WeightingNone
MarketHistoryΔ
Home72.4%76.2%+3.8 pp
Draw17.1%17.3%+0.2 pp
Away10.5%6.5%-4.0 pp
Comparable goal profile
Over 1.588.7%
Over 2.573.2%
Over 3.541.1%
BTTS55.4%
Historical average
2.58–0.85
Historical average score, not a predicted score.
Most common scores
2-115.5%
3-013.1%
2-08.3%
2-27.7%
1-17.1%
Comparable corner averages
7.13–3.20
Average total10.32
Home – away corner average · Corner sample N=168.
Comparable corner totals
Over 8.571.4%
Over 9.555.4%
Over 10.542.9%
Over 11.531.5%
What if?
If half-time is 0-0
Comparable matches34
Exact HT state0-0
Sample qualitylimited
Home FT67.6%50.8%–80.9% CI
Draw FT32.4%19.1%–49.2% CI
Away FT0.0%0.0%–10.2% CI
Remaining goals
1.91
Historical average second-half goals.
Second half
1+ goal88.2%
2+ goals64.7%
3+ goals32.4%
Who scores in 2H
Home88.2%
Away41.2%