Eredivisie · 2023/24
2024-05-06 · 19:00
12.9132.4%
X3.7725.0%
22.2142.6%
Average market odds. Implied probabilities are normalized to remove the market margin.
Quick read
Match snapshot
Home vs Away · Last 10
Form
Excelsior
DLDWDLLDLW
2W 4D 4L · 1.00 PPM
Nijmegen
WWDDLDWLDW
4W 4D 2L · 1.60 PPM
Goals
1.40
Scored
2.00
1.50
Conceded
1.40
50%
Over 2.5
70%
60%
BTTS
70%
By half
1.00
1H goals
1.30
1.90
2H goals
2.10
90%
Goal in 2H
90%
Corners
4.70N=10
For
3.90N=10
6.20
Against
6.60
10.90
Total
10.50
Signals
Key historical patterns
moderateBoth teams scored
6/10 home-side sample · 7/10 away-side sample.
very strongAt least one second-half goal
9/10 home-side sample · 9/10 away-side sample.
strongOver 8.5 corners
7/10 home-side sample · 7/10 away-side sample.
Team history
Goals
N=10 N=10
1.40
Goals scored
2.00
1.50
Goals conceded
1.40
2.90
Total goals
3.40
Over 1.5
Over 2.5
Over 3.5
BTTS
Matchup
Excelsior attack
1.40goals per matchNijmegen conceded1.40Matchup
Nijmegen attack
2.00goals per matchExcelsior conceded1.50Timing
First & second half
N=10 N=10
0.60
1H goals scored
0.80
0.40
1H goals conceded
0.50
Over 0.5 1H
Leading at HT
0.80
2H goals scored
1.20
1.10
2H goals conceded
0.90
Over 0.5 2H
More goals in 2H
Set pieces
Corners
N=10 N=10
4.70N=10
Corners for
3.90N=10
6.20
Corners against
6.60
10.90
Match total
10.50
Over 8.5
Over 9.5
Team over 4.5
Advanced
Cards, fouls & shots
Yellow cards
1.00N=10
For
1.80N=10
2.50
Match total
3.50
Over 3.5
Fouls
7.80N=10
Committed
10.00N=10
15.10
Match total
18.70
Shots
13.90N=10
Shots
11.50N=10
5.30
On target
5.70
10%
Conversion
17%
Market history
Similar historical matches
low · Tier A
Comparable matches82
Method1X2 + O/U + AH
WeightingNone
MarketHistoryΔ
Home32.4%29.3%-3.1 pp
Draw25.0%35.4%+10.4 pp
Away42.6%35.4%-7.3 pp
Comparable goal profile
Over 1.590.2%
Over 2.551.2%
Over 3.534.1%
BTTS67.1%
Historical average
1.43–1.60
Historical average score, not a predicted score.
Most common scores
1-123.2%
0-28.5%
2-28.5%
2-07.3%
1-26.1%
Comparable corner averages
4.87–5.10
Average total9.96
Home – away corner average · Corner sample N=82.
Comparable corner totals
Over 8.563.4%
Over 9.556.1%
Over 10.547.6%
Over 11.531.7%
What if?
If half-time is 0-0
Comparable matches23
Exact HT state0-0
Sample qualitylimited
Home FT17.4%7.0%–37.1% CI
Draw FT43.5%25.6%–63.2% CI
Away FT39.1%22.2%–59.2% CI
Remaining goals
2.17
Historical average second-half goals.
Second half
1+ goal91.3%
2+ goals78.3%
3+ goals26.1%
Who scores in 2H
Home65.2%
Away78.3%