Eredivisie · 2023/24
2024-04-24 · 20:00
11.2873.8%
X5.9216.0%
29.2510.2%
Average market odds. Implied probabilities are normalized to remove the market margin.
Quick read
Match snapshot
Home vs Away · Last 10
Form
Ajax
WWDWDDWDDW
5W 5D 0L · 2.00 PPM
Excelsior
DDLLLLLLLL
0W 2D 8L · 0.20 PPM
Goals
2.30
Scored
1.30
1.10
Conceded
3.10
70%
Over 2.5
100%
80%
BTTS
80%
By half
1.50
1H goals
2.10
1.90
2H goals
2.30
90%
Goal in 2H
100%
Corners
4.50N=10
For
2.60N=10
3.80
Against
7.00
8.30
Total
9.60
Signals
Key historical patterns
strongOver 2.5 goals
7/10 home-side sample · 10/10 away-side sample.
very strongBoth teams scored
8/10 home-side sample · 8/10 away-side sample.
very strongAt least one second-half goal
9/10 home-side sample · 10/10 away-side sample.
Team history
Goals
N=10 N=10
2.30
Goals scored
1.30
1.10
Goals conceded
3.10
3.40
Total goals
4.40
Over 1.5
Over 2.5
Over 3.5
BTTS
Matchup
Ajax attack
2.30goals per matchExcelsior conceded3.10Matchup
Excelsior attack
1.30goals per matchAjax conceded1.10Timing
First & second half
N=10 N=10
1.20
1H goals scored
0.50
0.30
1H goals conceded
1.60
Over 0.5 1H
Leading at HT
1.10
2H goals scored
0.80
0.80
2H goals conceded
1.50
Over 0.5 2H
More goals in 2H
Set pieces
Corners
N=10 N=10
4.50N=10
Corners for
2.60N=10
3.80
Corners against
7.00
8.30
Match total
9.60
Over 8.5
Over 9.5
Team over 4.5
Advanced
Cards, fouls & shots
Yellow cards
1.10N=10
For
1.80N=10
2.30
Match total
2.90
Over 3.5
Fouls
7.20N=10
Committed
8.40N=10
17.20
Match total
15.90
Shots
15.40N=10
Shots
8.40N=10
6.50
On target
3.30
15%
Conversion
15%
Market history
Similar historical matches
low · Tier A
Comparable matches65
Method1X2 + O/U + AH
WeightingNone
MarketHistoryΔ
Home73.8%72.3%-1.5 pp
Draw16.0%20.0%+4.0 pp
Away10.2%7.7%-2.5 pp
Comparable goal profile
Over 1.583.1%
Over 2.566.2%
Over 3.549.2%
BTTS52.3%
Historical average
2.48–0.89
Historical average score, not a predicted score.
Most common scores
4-012.3%
1-010.8%
2-110.8%
2-07.7%
3-16.2%
Comparable corner averages
7.08–3.74
Average total10.82
Home – away corner average · Corner sample N=65.
Comparable corner totals
Over 8.570.8%
Over 9.561.5%
Over 10.550.8%
Over 11.536.9%
What if?
If half-time is 0-0
Comparable matches14
Exact HT state0-0
Sample qualitylimited
Home FT42.9%21.4%–67.4% CI
Draw FT57.1%32.6%–78.6% CI
Away FT0.0%0.0%–21.5% CI
Remaining goals
1.36
Historical average second-half goals.
Second half
1+ goal71.4%
2+ goals42.9%
3+ goals14.3%
Who scores in 2H
Home71.4%
Away35.7%