Eredivisie · 2023/24
2024-04-24 · 20:00
11.2873.8%
X5.9216.0%
29.2510.2%

Average market odds. Implied probabilities are normalized to remove the market margin.

Sample
Context
Past seasons
Quick read

Match snapshot

Home vs Away · Last 10

Form

Ajax
WWDWDDWDDW
5W 5D 0L · 2.00 PPM
Excelsior
DDLLLLLLLL
0W 2D 8L · 0.20 PPM

Goals

2.30
Scored
1.30
1.10
Conceded
3.10
70%
Over 2.5
100%
80%
BTTS
80%

By half

1.50
1H goals
2.10
1.90
2H goals
2.30
90%
Goal in 2H
100%

Corners

4.50N=10
For
2.60N=10
3.80
Against
7.00
8.30
Total
9.60
Signals

Key historical patterns

strongOver 2.5 goals

7/10 home-side sample · 10/10 away-side sample.

very strongBoth teams scored

8/10 home-side sample · 8/10 away-side sample.

very strongAt least one second-half goal

9/10 home-side sample · 10/10 away-side sample.

Team history

Goals

N=10 N=10
2.30
Goals scored
1.30
1.10
Goals conceded
3.10
3.40
Total goals
4.40
100%10/10
Over 1.5
100%10/10
70%7/10
Over 2.5
100%10/10
50%5/10
Over 3.5
70%7/10
80%8/10
BTTS
80%8/10
Matchup

Ajax attack

2.30goals per match
Excelsior conceded3.10
Matchup

Excelsior attack

1.30goals per match
Ajax conceded1.10
Timing

First & second half

N=10 N=10
1.20
1H goals scored
0.50
0.30
1H goals conceded
1.60
100%10/10
Over 0.5 1H
90%9/10
80%8/10
Leading at HT
10%1/10
1.10
2H goals scored
0.80
0.80
2H goals conceded
1.50
90%9/10
Over 0.5 2H
100%10/10
50%5/10
More goals in 2H
40%4/10
Set pieces

Corners

N=10 N=10
4.50N=10
Corners for
2.60N=10
3.80
Corners against
7.00
8.30
Match total
9.60
30%3/10
Over 8.5
60%6/10
30%3/10
Over 9.5
50%5/10
50%5/10
Team over 4.5
20%2/10
Advanced

Cards, fouls & shots

Yellow cards

1.10N=10
For
1.80N=10
2.30
Match total
2.90
20%2/10
Over 3.5
40%4/10

Fouls

7.20N=10
Committed
8.40N=10
17.20
Match total
15.90

Shots

15.40N=10
Shots
8.40N=10
6.50
On target
3.30
15%
Conversion
15%
Historical scope
History
Market history

Similar historical matches

low · Tier A
Comparable matches65
Method1X2 + O/U + AH
WeightingNone
MarketHistoryΔ
Home73.8%72.3%-1.5 pp
Draw16.0%20.0%+4.0 pp
Away10.2%7.7%-2.5 pp

Comparable goal profile

Over 1.583.1%
Over 2.566.2%
Over 3.549.2%
BTTS52.3%

Historical average

2.480.89

Historical average score, not a predicted score.

Most common scores

4-012.3%
1-010.8%
2-110.8%
2-07.7%
3-16.2%

Comparable corner averages

7.083.74
Average total10.82

Home – away corner average · Corner sample N=65.

Comparable corner totals

Over 8.570.8%
Over 9.561.5%
Over 10.550.8%
Over 11.536.9%
Half-time score
What if?

If half-time is 0-0

Comparable matches14
Exact HT state0-0
Sample qualitylimited
Home FT42.9%21.4%–67.4% CI
Draw FT57.1%32.6%–78.6% CI
Away FT0.0%0.0%–21.5% CI

Remaining goals

1.36

Historical average second-half goals.

Second half

1+ goal71.4%
2+ goals42.9%
3+ goals14.3%

Who scores in 2H

Home71.4%
Away35.7%