Eredivisie · 2023/24
2024-04-03 · 17:45
16.8613.8%
X4.6920.1%
21.4366.1%
Average market odds. Implied probabilities are normalized to remove the market margin.
Quick read
Match snapshot
Home vs Away · Last 10
Form
Heracles
WDLLLDLWDW
3W 3D 4L · 1.20 PPM
AZ Alkmaar
WDLDLDDWDW
3W 5D 2L · 1.40 PPM
Goals
1.40
Scored
1.40
2.30
Conceded
1.00
70%
Over 2.5
50%
60%
BTTS
70%
By half
1.40
1H goals
1.10
2.30
2H goals
1.30
100%
Goal in 2H
80%
Corners
4.50N=10
For
5.00N=10
5.70
Against
4.30
10.20
Total
9.30
Signals
Key historical patterns
moderateBoth teams scored
6/10 home-side sample · 7/10 away-side sample.
very strongAt least one second-half goal
10/10 home-side sample · 8/10 away-side sample.
strongOver 8.5 corners
7/10 home-side sample · 7/10 away-side sample.
Team history
Goals
N=10 N=10
1.40
Goals scored
1.40
2.30
Goals conceded
1.00
3.70
Total goals
2.40
Over 1.5
Over 2.5
Over 3.5
BTTS
Matchup
Heracles attack
1.40goals per matchAZ Alkmaar conceded1.00Matchup
AZ Alkmaar attack
1.40goals per matchHeracles conceded2.30Timing
First & second half
N=10 N=10
0.20
1H goals scored
0.70
1.20
1H goals conceded
0.40
Over 0.5 1H
Leading at HT
1.20
2H goals scored
0.70
1.10
2H goals conceded
0.60
Over 0.5 2H
More goals in 2H
Set pieces
Corners
N=10 N=10
4.50N=10
Corners for
5.00N=10
5.70
Corners against
4.30
10.20
Match total
9.30
Over 8.5
Over 9.5
Team over 4.5
Advanced
Cards, fouls & shots
Yellow cards
1.50N=10
For
1.60N=10
3.00
Match total
3.00
Over 3.5
Fouls
10.90N=10
Committed
10.10N=10
20.30
Match total
21.10
Shots
12.70N=10
Shots
13.10N=10
4.40
On target
4.20
11%
Conversion
11%
Market history
Similar historical matches
low · Tier A
Comparable matches113
Method1X2 + O/U + AH
WeightingNone
MarketHistoryΔ
Home13.8%10.6%-3.2 pp
Draw20.1%19.5%-0.7 pp
Away66.1%69.9%+3.8 pp
Comparable goal profile
Over 1.579.6%
Over 2.560.2%
Over 3.533.6%
BTTS57.5%
Historical average
0.88–2.12
Historical average score, not a predicted score.
Most common scores
1-216.8%
0-113.3%
0-29.7%
1-18.8%
2-27.1%
Comparable corner averages
3.53–6.36
Average total9.89
Home – away corner average · Corner sample N=113.
Comparable corner totals
Over 8.559.3%
Over 9.547.8%
Over 10.537.2%
Over 11.529.2%
What if?
If half-time is 0-0
Comparable matches31
Exact HT state0-0
Sample qualitylimited
Home FT19.4%9.2%–36.3% CI
Draw FT25.8%13.7%–43.2% CI
Away FT54.8%37.8%–70.8% CI
Remaining goals
1.84
Historical average second-half goals.
Second half
1+ goal87.1%
2+ goals54.8%
3+ goals32.3%
Who scores in 2H
Home41.9%
Away77.4%