Eredivisie · 2019/20
2020-03-01 · 19:00
11.5062.8%
X4.5220.8%
25.7416.4%
Average market odds. Implied probabilities are normalized to remove the market margin.
Quick read
Match snapshot
Home vs Away · Last 10
Form
Ajax
WWWWWLWWWW
9W 0D 1L · 2.70 PPM
AZ Alkmaar
LWWDWWWLWL
6W 1D 3L · 1.90 PPM
Goals
3.10
Scored
1.80
0.50
Conceded
0.90
70%
Over 2.5
70%
30%
BTTS
30%
By half
1.60
1H goals
1.60
2.00
2H goals
1.10
80%
Goal in 2H
80%
Corners
7.50N=10
For
4.80N=10
3.00
Against
3.80
10.50
Total
8.60
Signals
Key historical patterns
strongOver 2.5 goals
7/10 home-side sample · 7/10 away-side sample.
very strongAt least one second-half goal
8/10 home-side sample · 8/10 away-side sample.
moderateOver 8.5 corners
9/10 home-side sample · 6/10 away-side sample.
Team history
Goals
N=10 N=10
3.10
Goals scored
1.80
0.50
Goals conceded
0.90
3.60
Total goals
2.70
Over 1.5
Over 2.5
Over 3.5
BTTS
Matchup
Ajax attack
3.10goals per matchAZ Alkmaar conceded0.90Matchup
AZ Alkmaar attack
1.80goals per matchAjax conceded0.50Timing
First & second half
N=10 N=10
1.50
1H goals scored
1.00
0.10
1H goals conceded
0.60
Over 0.5 1H
Leading at HT
1.60
2H goals scored
0.80
0.40
2H goals conceded
0.30
Over 0.5 2H
More goals in 2H
Set pieces
Corners
N=10 N=10
7.50N=10
Corners for
4.80N=10
3.00
Corners against
3.80
10.50
Match total
8.60
Over 8.5
Over 9.5
Team over 4.5
Advanced
Cards, fouls & shots
Yellow cards
0.90N=10
For
1.70N=10
2.40
Match total
3.00
Over 3.5
Fouls
9.50N=10
Committed
12.10N=10
19.50
Match total
25.30
Shots
24.90N=10
Shots
12.40N=10
9.90
On target
5.10
12%
Conversion
15%
Market history
Similar historical matches
low · Tier A
Comparable matches15
Method1X2 + O/U + AH
WeightingNone
MarketHistoryΔ
Home62.8%66.7%+3.9 pp
Draw20.8%13.3%-7.5 pp
Away16.4%20.0%+3.6 pp
Comparable goal profile
Over 1.593.3%
Over 2.573.3%
Over 3.546.7%
BTTS66.7%
Historical average
2.40–1.00
Historical average score, not a predicted score.
Most common scores
2-113.3%
3-113.3%
5-113.3%
2-013.3%
1-16.7%
Comparable corner averages
5.67–4.27
Average total9.93
Home – away corner average · Corner sample N=15.
Comparable corner totals
Over 8.560.0%
Over 9.540.0%
Over 10.540.0%
Over 11.540.0%
What if?
If half-time is 0-0
Comparable matches20
Exact HT state0-0
Sample qualitylimited
Home FT45.0%25.8%–65.8% CI
Draw FT45.0%25.8%–65.8% CI
Away FT10.0%2.8%–30.1% CI
Remaining goals
1.50
Historical average second-half goals.
Second half
1+ goal75.0%
2+ goals55.0%
3+ goals20.0%
Who scores in 2H
Home65.0%
Away40.0%