Ligue 1 · 2024/25
2025-04-12 · 16:00
12.0247.0%
X3.8524.6%
23.3428.4%
Average market odds. Implied probabilities are normalized to remove the market margin.
Quick read
Match snapshot
Home vs Away · Last 10
Form
Monaco
DLWWLWWWWW
7W 1D 2L · 2.20 PPM
Marseille
WWWWWLWLLL
6W 0D 4L · 1.80 PPM
Goals
2.60
Scored
1.80
1.30
Conceded
1.40
70%
Over 2.5
70%
60%
BTTS
50%
By half
1.50
1H goals
1.30
2.40
2H goals
1.90
80%
Goal in 2H
100%
Corners
4.70N=10
For
6.00N=10
3.80
Against
2.70
8.50
Total
8.70
Signals
Key historical patterns
strongOver 2.5 goals
7/10 home-side sample · 7/10 away-side sample.
very strongAt least one second-half goal
8/10 home-side sample · 10/10 away-side sample.
Team history
Goals
N=10 N=10
2.60
Goals scored
1.80
1.30
Goals conceded
1.40
3.90
Total goals
3.20
Over 1.5
Over 2.5
Over 3.5
BTTS
Matchup
Monaco attack
2.60goals per matchMarseille conceded1.40Matchup
Marseille attack
1.80goals per matchMonaco conceded1.30Timing
First & second half
N=10 N=10
0.80
1H goals scored
0.60
0.70
1H goals conceded
0.70
Over 0.5 1H
Leading at HT
1.80
2H goals scored
1.20
0.60
2H goals conceded
0.70
Over 0.5 2H
More goals in 2H
Set pieces
Corners
N=10 N=10
4.70N=10
Corners for
6.00N=10
3.80
Corners against
2.70
8.50
Match total
8.70
Over 8.5
Over 9.5
Team over 4.5
Advanced
Cards, fouls & shots
Yellow cards
1.60N=10
For
1.60N=10
3.60
Match total
2.80
Over 3.5
Fouls
13.30N=10
Committed
10.40N=10
25.90
Match total
21.60
Shots
16.20N=10
Shots
14.60N=10
6.30
On target
6.30
16%
Conversion
12%
Market history
Similar historical matches
low · Tier A
Comparable matches74
Method1X2 + O/U + AH
WeightingNone
MarketHistoryΔ
Home47.0%43.2%-3.7 pp
Draw24.6%25.7%+1.0 pp
Away28.4%31.1%+2.7 pp
Comparable goal profile
Over 1.581.1%
Over 2.563.5%
Over 3.540.5%
BTTS63.5%
Historical average
1.76–1.28
Historical average score, not a predicted score.
Most common scores
2-213.5%
1-210.8%
1-19.5%
0-18.1%
2-18.1%
Comparable corner averages
5.89–4.37
Average total10.26
Home – away corner average · Corner sample N=73.
Comparable corner totals
Over 8.569.9%
Over 9.563.0%
Over 10.549.3%
Over 11.537.0%
What if?
If half-time is 0-0
Comparable matches19
Exact HT state0-0
Sample qualitylimited
Home FT47.4%27.3%–68.3% CI
Draw FT31.6%15.4%–54.0% CI
Away FT21.1%8.5%–43.3% CI
Remaining goals
1.79
Historical average second-half goals.
Second half
1+ goal89.5%
2+ goals52.6%
3+ goals21.1%
Who scores in 2H
Home68.4%
Away57.9%